Two of the best pitchers in the majors go head-to-head on Monday night as J.A. Happ and Justin Verlander get the nod for their respective teams in Houston. The Astros opened as -240 favorites as they go for their 53rd win of the season against the 36-41 Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto has lost 15 of its last 21 games at Minute Maid Park.
Over the weekend, Houston took two of three from the visiting Royals while Toronto split four games with Mike Trout’s Angels in Anaheim. This is the first meeting between the teams this season after Houston won the 2017 season series 4-3.
- Toronto is 10-4 in J.A. Happ’s 14 starts this season.
- Houston is 9-2 in its last 11 series openers.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Blue Jays’ last eight games against the Astros (avg combined score: 13.5).
Marquee Mound Matchup
Fans of pitchers’ duels are in luck as both teams send their aces to the mound. It’s not often that J.A. Happ, a sought-after trade target for many contenders, isn’t the statistical favorite in a game. However, it’s not often you’re looking across at a surefire Hall of Famer.
Justin Verlander leads the majors in ERA (1.60) and WHIP (0.78) and is third in wins (nine) and fourth in innings pitched (107). Verlander has gone at least six innings in all but one of his 16 starts this year; he was pulled with two out in the sixth inning of his second start back in April. Mr. Kate Upton is 5-0 in his last five decisions and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any outing this season.
J.A. Happ has been the Jays’ most consistent pitcher since returning to the club in 2016. Happ went 8.1 innings in his last start, a 5-4 win vs Atlanta, and John Gibbons will hope for a repeat tonight as the pen was taxed in Anaheim. The former Astro is Toronto’s only starter with a record over .500 this year (9-3). That mark is in part due to Happ’s mound performances and in part due to him receiving 5.93 runs per game from Toronto’s moody offence. By comparison, Verlander is getting a full two runs less in support at 3.94 runs per game. The total is set at 7 for tonight’s game.
Astros Tied Atop MLB Win Column
Houston earned its 52nd win on Sunday, tying Boston for the most wins in baseball. The World Series champs haven’t shown any signs of a championship hangover as they continue to get stronger as the season continues. The Astros lead MLB in team batting average (.264) and runs (409) while belting out 714 hits this season. Looking at their offensive stats in June, Houston’s team batting average jumps to .285 and the team OPS is .847. Those numbers are first and second in the majors, respectively.
Good Pitching Beats Good Hitting, Right?
The Jays are having their best offensive month of 2018 in June. They are hitting .260 as a team with 34 home runs and an OPS of .783. Those numbers put them in the top three in the American League in each category. These hot offensive trends from both clubs, combined with some intriguing OVER statistics, makes the OVER odds of -120 make a little more sense.
The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight games between these teams, including in five of the seven meetings a year ago. The total has gone OVER in 15 of the Astros’ last 21 games and in five of the Jays’ last seven games.
