Count me among the folks who believe the Red Sox will turn things around but it does have to be a little concerning that they’ve lost their ninth game already, almost a month before they did last season.
After dropping their home opener on Tuesday, the Sox finish out a mini two-game set with the Blue Jays tonight as Nathan Eovaldi goes head-to-head with Aaron Sanchez. Boston is a -200 betting favorite with the total at 9.5 runs.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Game Center
Standout Stats
- The OVER has hit in five consecutive Nathan Eovaldi starts dating back to last season. He has allowed nine earned runs on 12 hits over 10 innings pitched in his first two starts. Four of his 12 hits allowed have been home runs and he’s sporting an 8.10 ERA and 1.8 WHIP.
- Aaron Sanchez has a 1.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through his first two starts this season. The Red Sox roster has a career .234 batting average and .666 OPS vs Sanchez. Those numbers include just five home runs in 201 at-bats. Sanchez has a career .212 opponents’ batting average in 19 games vs Boston.
- The Blue Jays are scoring just three runs per game. Only Detroit and Miami are worse offensively to start the season. Boston’s starting rotation has the worst ERA in MLB at 8.78.
- The Red Sox are scoring 4.25 runs per game on 8.2 hits per game. Jays’ pitching is allowing 3.25 runs per game on 6.3 hits.
- Nathan Eovaldi allowed just seven earned runs in 31 innings pitched at Fenway last season.
- Only two starting rotations have opponents’ batting averages above .300 – Boston (.327) and Chicago Cubs (.320). Boston’s starters have an opponent OPS of 1.011. Meanwhile, Toronto’s starting rotation has a 2.51 ERA, No. 4 in MLB.
- Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine divisional road games. Paying -110 at +1.5 tonight is pretty good value for the Blue Birds considering the state of these two franchises right now.
- Toronto is striking out 10 times per game, ranking them fifth-worst in the entire MLB. Eovaldi only struck out three guys in each of his first two starts while the bullpen is averaging 4.1 Ks per game. Eovaldi’s strikeout O/U is set at 4.5 for tonight – he averaged 4.8 K/start last season.
My Best Bet for Blue Jays vs Red Sox
Toronto +1.5
This is a tough one to call. A week ago I would have been touting the Red Sox demolishing the Jays and that could certainly happen tonight. However, with Boston’s slow start and Aaron Sanchez’ ability to shut teams down, I don’t see the champs breaking out against him tonight. I’ll also be giving UNDER 9.5 runs a look in this one.
