After losing two of three games in Tampa, the Toronto Blue Jays have fallen a half-game out of a playoff spot in the American League. The Blue Jays now head to Minnesota for four very important games and are solid moneyline favorites in the opener Thursday night. These teams met in Toronto less than a week ago and the Jays won two of three contests.
- Date/Time: September 23, 7:40 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Target Field
- TV Coverage: SNET, Bally Sports North
- Sportsbook Odds: Blue Jays -147 | O/U 8.5 (Line History)
- Blue Jays vs Twins Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Blue Jays, 10-3 in their last 13 games on the road, remain a -147 favorite in Minnesota. The total opened at 8.5 but that line has been adjusted all the way to 9.5. Minnesota has gone OVER the total in five of its last seven games.
Starting Pitchers Analysis
In 2020 with the New York Mets, Steven Matz was 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. But the Blue Jays took a chance on the 30-year-old lefty and have been rewarded with a 13-7 record and 3.84 ERA. Last time out, Matz held the Twins in check, giving up two earned runs in 5.2 innings to pick up the win.
In his third season with Minnesota, Michael Pineda continues to be a very reliable arm. The 32-year-old right-hander is only 7-8, but his 3.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP suggest he could easily have a couple more wins. In his last start, Pineda beat the Blue Jays, holding them to three hits and one run in 5.2 innings.
Toronto News & Notes
The Blue Jays had a lot of momentum heading into their three-game series at Tampa Bay. But after the scouting report incident and a blowout loss in the final game, Jays fans might be concerned that momentum is gone. Toronto is a half-game back of the Yankees for the second wild-card spot and hosts New York for three games early next week.
George Springer has just two hits in his last 23 at-bats and was a non-factor against the Rays. In his career against Pineda, Springer is hitting .429 with three home runs and 10 RBIs in 21 at-bats. The veteran has battled injuries all year and hasn’t homered in 10 games.
In a lineup that includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien and several other big bats, Bo Bichette doesn’t always get the recognition he deserves. However, the 23-year-old shortstop is having another outstanding season offensively – 26 home runs, 98 RBIs, 23 stolen bases and a .292 average would definitely get a lot more attention in other markets.
Minnesota News & Notes
With only 67 wins, the Twins are last in the AL Central and have the AL’s third-worst record behind Baltimore and Texas. Minnesota has given up 169 more runs than the Blue Jays, and only the Orioles and Diamondbacks have surrendered more runs in all of baseball.
Ex-Blue Jay and former AL MVP Josh Donaldson has three career home runs against Matz in only 13 at-bats. Last week, Donaldson homered twice against his former team in Toronto.
Prior to this year, Jorge Polanco’s career best for homers in a season was 22. The 28-year-old middle infielder has popped 31 long balls in 2021 and is sitting on 90 RBIs. Polanco has done the majority of his damage away from Target Field, hitting 21 home runs on the road.
Staff Betting Pick: UNDER 9.5
Toronto scores a lot of runs and Minnesota gives up a lot of runs, so jumping on the UNDER wasn’t my first instinct. However, the Toronto bats were quieted in Tampa and I wonder about their momentum coming out of that tough series loss. Take the UNDER 9.5 today and wait on the Blue Jays bats to come around later in the series.
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Buy Sports Picks Now- Minnesota is 2-7 in its last 9 home games.
- Toronto is 10-3 in its last 13 road games.
- The OVER is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last 7 games.
