The Cincinnati Reds have been a wonderful surprise for MLB fans and sports bettors this year. This club is jockeying for the NL Central crown, among baseball's most profitable road squads, and is stacked with young stars like Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain.
But, more important than anything else, Cincinnati's 26-man roster houses a little-known betting secret: Luke Weaver.
MLB sharps will remember Patrick Corbin Day from 2022. This is the opposite, meaning Weaver wins instead of loses. Despite being a terrible pitcher (7.00 ERA, -0.6 bWAR), Weaver is one of baseball's most profitable starters.
If you were to bet $100 on all 15 of Weaver's starts this year, you'd be up $763. Impossible, right? Nope. Let me explain.
Why is luke Weaver so profitable?
| W/L Record | Average Run Support | Average Odds | Profitability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | 5.80 | +105 | +$763 |
The easy answer is run support. Obviously, Weaver's Reds need to score tons of runs if he's toting a 7.00 ERA on the hill every five days. But there's more to it.
While Weaver gets a lot of help (5.8 average run support per game), that number only puts him 17th among pitchers with at least 10 starts.
The 29-year-old hasn't seen steeper chalk this year than two pick'em lines (-110) on June 12 and July 3. His average odds even out to +105, which, in theory, has made him a plus-money start all year.
The Reds have also won nine of Weaver's start days by three runs or less. With the club at 10-5 when he pitches, that means Cincy is just squeaking out those victories.
All to say, Weaver's profitability is a product of strong underdog value, just enough run support, and some excellent play by Cincinnati in tight contests.
How To Bet Luke Weaver
Okay, bare bones time. You've opened your sports betting app. How do you profit off Luke Weaver?
Bet Moneyline, Not First Five Innings
In reality, this betting trend isn't about Weaver; it's more about how the Reds play when he's out there. So it's no surprise to see Weaver not crack our top charts of the most profitable first-five-inning pitchers.
The Reds are actually in the negative this year for first-five-inning betting — a tough contrast given the club's profitability on moneyline and runline bets.
Long story short, to capitalize on Weaver days, bet the moneyline.
Bet the OVERs
OVERs are also a good bet on Weaver days, as Cincinnati is unsurprisingly the second-best club in baseball with a 53-41 O/U record. Only the Dodgers are better at 52-36-5.
The Reds are 10-5 O/U when Weaver starts. That's a sexy enough trend to open your bankroll for. But, beware, there is a caveat.
The Reds' O/U average (the average margin by which the club exceeds or falls short of a total) is just 0.5. That means Cinci is cashing OVERs but by an average of just half a run, putting them in the lower half (for average margin) among OVER-happy clubs. Cincinnati is getting it done, but barely.
Home Run Props Are A Good Idea
Weaver's 2.09 HR/9 is the second-most among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched this season. On top of that, his four-seam fastball, which he throws 45% of the time, is worth a -14 run value per Baseball Savant, making it the sixth-worst pitch in all of baseball.
If you like the odds for a home run prop bet, or your favorite hitter crushes four-seamers, make those bets with Weaver on the mound.
How Long Will The Betting Trend Last?
Sportsbooks are catching on to the Reds' success. At the start of the year, Weaver start days saw Cinci yield +145 and +180 underdog statuses. Since the Reds have started winning, the value has disappeared. Weaver's seen odds longer than +136 just once since June 12.
Even with the waning odds, there's still a route to profitable betting on Weaver days. The greater problem would be Weaver sucking so bad, the Reds just yank him from the rotation. Frankly, I'm surprised we aren't there yet.
MLB clubs don't care about betting profitability. And that 7.00 ERA won't keep him in the starting five for much longer, no matter how many vicious comebacks Cincinnati pulls off.
My advice? Set a reminder on your phone for every Weaver start day and hammer Cinci on the ML.
Make hay while the sun still shines, my betting friends, for this plus-money harvest won't last forever.
