The NASCAR Cup Series season continues to roll on as it is set to put on its eighth event in a month since the two-month hiatus during the COVID-19 pandemic. The drivers and crew competed on Wednesday under the lights at Martinsville and now head south to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400. The last two winners on the season, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr., can be found atop the oddsboard at +450 to collect another win on Sunday.
Online sportsbook Bovada has released odds for this weekend’s race, placing Harvick and Truex Jr. as the betting favorites at +450. They’re followed by Kyle Busch at +500, Chase Elliott at +750, Joey Logano at +800, Brad Keselowski at +900, Denny Hamlin at +900, Ryan Blaney at +1000, Alex Bowman at +2000 and Jimmie Johnson at +2200 to round out the top 10 on the oddsboard.
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|Martin Truex Jr.||+450|
|Darrell Wallace Jr.||+10000|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||+12500|
|John H. Nemechek||+30000|
Odds as of June 12 at Bovada
Harvick or Truex Jr.? Which Favorite Is Providing Better Value?
There has been no driver more dialed in than Kevin Harvick in the early stages of the 2020 season. The current points leader has found himself inside the top 10 in nine of the 11 races, posting six top-five finishes and two wins, while also leading the most laps of any driver. At Homestead-Miami, Harvick has finished inside the top five in nine of the last 12 runnings, including the last six in a row, though he has just one win over that span.
Truex Jr. had a slower start to the season, but he’s the type of driver who can rattle off wins in bunches when he gets hot. That was evident when he won his championship in 2017, winning four of the last 10 races of the season, including the finale at Homestead-Miami.
He won most recently at Martinsville on Wednesday and had a third-place finish last Sunday at Atlanta – his first two top-five finishes of the season. In Miami, he has finished first or second in each of the last three races and six of his 15 career starts at this track have ended with top-five finishes.
Harvick is the better favorite in my mind, though when Truex Jr. gets going, he’s a tough one to beat. What makes this particular race very difficult to handicap is that Homestead-Miami is always run as the season finale in November, one race a year. The weather and track conditions are going to be very different, much like we saw at Martinsville on Wednesday, and without practice or qualifying or data from previous races in June at this track, we could see wild car setups that could hit or severely miss.
Betting Pick: Harvick +450, Kyle Busch at +500 and Logano at +800
Harvick has been incredibly consistent this season and at Homestead-Miami, so placing a wager on him is a no-brainer. Kyle Busch has also been consistent and is still searching for his first win this season. He is matched with Harvick for the most top-five finishes this year with six and at Miami, he has won two of the last five runnings, including last year, and has landed in the top five in four of the last five races there.
Joey Logano won at Homestead-Miami in 2018 and has finished in the top five in four of the last five runnings there. This season, he is second to Harvick in most laps led and is tied with Harvick and Keselowski for the most wins on the year at two. Additionally, Fords have been terrific this season as a whole, winning six of the 11 races thus far.
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