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NASCAR: Busch Still Favored To Win 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup

NASCAR Odds to Win 2019 Monster Energy Cup Series

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are just eight weeks away and Kyle Busch is the +250 favorite to lift the trophy at the end of the season. However, he trails reigning champion Joey Logano in the standings at this point and you can get Logano at +800.

Intertops has Busch as the favorite at +250 followed by Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. at +600, Brad Keselowski and Logano at +800, Chase Elliott at +900, and Denny Hamlin at +1600 to round out the top drivers on the oddsboard.

No Value On Harvick

Despite being able to find Kevin Harvick third in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series standings, I think he is extremely overvalued at +600 to win the championship this year. He is not the dominant force he has been over the last couple of years, failing to drive to victory lane yet this year and with just five top-five finishes and three stage wins.

I do think that Harvick will qualify for a playoff spot unless something catastrophic happens over the next few weeks, but advancing through the playoff stages will prove difficult if he can’t find his mojo from last year. That being said, keep an eye on him as the season progresses if he can get back in a groove, as he has finished on the podium at Homestead-Miami, the final race of the year, in four of the last five races.

Busch Has Been Competitive At Homestead-Miami

There is no question that Kyle Busch will be in the playoffs and will be up on the wheel looking to advance through the stages. The Nevada native is tied with Martin Truex Jr. for the season high in wins thus far, with each grabbing four checkered flags. Additionally, he has the most top-five and top-10 finishes this year.

What makes Busch a decent wager is that when it comes to crunch time at Homestead-Miami to win the championship, he is very strong. He has finished in the top five in four of the last seven runnings at that track, leading laps in each of the last four, and he won the 2015 race. I don’t like to wager on a futures play with such low odds of +250, but it may be the best price you can get him at and he will definitely be in the hunt.

Logano Has The Best Value

The reigning champion and the current points leader is Joey Logano, but he has odds of just +800 to repeat. The Connecticut native has two wins on the season and has the second-most top-five finishes and the most stage wins as well.

In addition, Logano has finished sixth or better in each of the last four races at Homestead-Miami, including winning last year’s race, and he has led laps in three of the last four runnings there. Meanwhile, Fords have had a lot of speed in the 1.5-mile tracks so far at places like Kansas and Las Vegas, which helps build the case for Logano to win back-to-back titles.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup:

Odds to Win the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup 2019 Championship
  • Kyle Busch +250
  • Kevin Harvick +600
  • Martin Truex Jr. +600
  • Brad Keselowski +800
  • Joey Logano +800
  • Chase Elliott +900
  • Denny Hamlin +1600
  • Kyle Larson +2000
  • Ryan Blaney +2000
  • Kurt Busch +2000
  • Clint Bowyer +2200
  • Jimmie Johnson +2500
  • Erik Jones +2800
  • Aric Almirola +2800
  • Daniel Suarez +5000
  • Alex Bowman +5000
  • William Byron +8000
  • Austin Dillon +8000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +20000
  • Paul Menard +20000
  • Ryan Newman +20000
Odds as of June 26 at Intertops

As we approach the eighth race of the season, we are starting to get a clearer image of which drivers will be contenders for the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship. Through the first seven races, there have been four different winners and the current favorite to claim the title in November, Kyle Busch at +300, already has two wins.

BetOnline has Busch as the favorite at +300 followed by Joey Logano at +500, Kevin Harvick at +500, Brad Keselowski at +600 and Martin Truex Jr. at +800 to round out the top five drivers on the oddsboard.

Busch Starting the Season off right

Kyle Busch has been a challenger for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup every year for the last six seasons, including winning the title in 2015. The Nevada native has finished fourth or better in five of the last six years and is coming off a season in which he finished in a tie for the most wins and ended up fourth in the championship standings.

Busch has stormed out of the gate in the 2019 season, earning four stage wins (the next-closest driver has two), two full-race victories and five top-fives, and has finished in the top 10 in every race. Although he has seemingly been in the Cup series forever, he’s still just 33 years old and I think has a lot of championships left in his career, so it’s no surprise to see him as a +300 favorite.

Stay away from Harvick

Last season, Kevin Harvick had seven wins through the first 23 races but has won just once in the 20 races since then, including the first seven this year. Additionally, he has finished on the podium just three times over that span.

In the early stages of the 2019 season, the California native has only led laps in two races and has yet to finish on the podium. I don’t know what’s going on with Harvick since midway through last year, but unless they figure it out, I think that he’s extremely overvalued at +500.

Denny Hamlin providing best value right now

After a season in which he failed to drive to victory lane at all, Denny Hamlin has already picked up two checkered flags in 2019, including winning the Daytona 500. The Florida native had an off year all around in 2018, finishing 11th in the final championship standings, which was his worst finish since 2013 when he missed three races due to a broken vertebra in his back and finished 23rd.

In addition to his two victories, he has led laps in four total races and has finished inside the top 10 in six of the seven races. Hamlin has shown the ability to contend for a championship in the past, three times finishing on the podium in the final standings, including being the runner-up in the 2010 season. I don’t know if Hamlin has what it takes to outduel the likes of Kyle Busch at Homestead-Miami in November, but he definitely has the ability to be in the running for the title then and at +1200 I think it’s a decent wager.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup:

  • Kyle Busch +300
  • Joey Logano +500
  • Kevin Harvick +500
  • Brad Keselowski +600
  • Martin Truex Jr. +800
  • Chase Elliott +1000
  • Ryan Blaney +1000
  • Denny Hamlin +1200
  • Kyle Larson +1800
  • Aric Almirola +2000
  • Clint Bowyer +2000
  • Kurt Busch +2000
  • Erik Jones +2200
  • Jimmie Johnson +2200
  • Alex Bowman +5000
  • Daniel Suarez +5000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +6600
  • Austin Dillon +8000
  • Paul Menard +8000
  • William Byron +8000
  • Ryan Newman +10000
Odds as of April 3 at BetOnline

The NASCAR season is still in its infancy but it’s not too early to start looking ahead at what driver will be lifting the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup in November. Last year, it was Joey Logano as the last man standing, collecting his first-ever championship and he has +800 odds to repeat this season. However, it is Kyle Busch that’s the early favorite at +500 to win his second title.

Bovada has Busch in pole position to win the championship at +500 followed by Kevin Harvick at +550, Martin Truex Jr. at +750, Joey Logano at +800 and Kyle Larson at +850 to round out the top five on the oddsboard.

Can Logano Repeat?

It wasn’t long ago that Joey Logano was touted as the next top prospect for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. He was the youngest driver to win a then-Xfinity Series race at 18 years and 21 days old, then became the youngest then-Sprint Cup Series winner at 19 years and 35 days old. Additionally, he won the 2009 then-Sprint Cup Series rookie of the year.

Logano twice finished in top five in the championship standings, including being the 2016 runner-up but in his 10th full season in the Cup Series, he finally broke through with his first championship. The Connecticut native had 13 top-finishes and three wins last season, one of those victories came at Homestead-Miami in the season finale to clinch the championship.

Perhaps the 28-year-old can string together a few title runs starting with last year but I think if you wait until later in the season you can get him at a better value. He was +2000 in early October last year so I’d hold off on the +800 now.

Busch Favored the Win his Second Championship

Kyle Busch may have been the most dominant driver last season, finishing in a tie with Kevin Harvick for the most wins with eight, had the most top-10 finishes at 29 and the most top-five finishes at 23. However, he finished fourth at Homestead-Miami in the season finale which was behind the other three drivers vying for the championship.

The Nevada native won a title in 2015 and was the regular-season champ last year.  Busch has won at Homestead-Miami once in his career and has finished in the top five in four of his 14 career runnings there. This could be an issue for him because if he can't top the other three drivers in that finale he can’t win the title, hard to lay a significant wager on him to win in Miami so I would stay away from Busch at +500.

My Dark Horse for the Crown

It took until August of Chase Elliott’s third full-time season for him to capture his first checkered flag and he went on to win two more races for a total of three last season. The son of hall-of-famer Bill Elliott, Chase, finished sixth in the championship standings last year and had 11 top-five finishes.

I expect the 23-year-old to take another step forward this year after getting his first Cup Series win under his belt, and perhaps a championship is in line this year. He may have a similar issue as Busch, though, as he has an average finishing position of 7.7 through his three career races at Miami with his best finish being fifth. If he can find that extra gear in the season finale he could be worth a futures bet, but like Logano, waiting later in the season you might be able to get him at around +2000 rather than his current odds of +1000.

Here’s a look full list of odds to win the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Championship:

  • Kyle Busch +500
  • Kevin Harvick +550
  • Martin Truex Jr. +750
  • Joey Logano +800
  • Kyle Larson +850
  • Brad Keselowski +1000
  • Chase Elliott +1000
  • Ryan Blaney +1200
  • Denny Hamlin +1400
  • Jimmie Johnson +1600
  • Clint Bowyer +2000
  • Erik Jones +2200
  • Aric Almirola +2500
  • Kurt Busch +3300
  • Daniel Suarez +4000
  • Alex Bowman +5000
  • Austin Dillon +6600
  • William Byron +6600
  • Paul Menard +10000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +10000
  • Ryan Newman +20000
  • Daniel Hemric +25000
  • Ryan Preece +75000
  • Chris Buescher +90000
  • Darrell Wallace Jr. +90000
Odds as of February 28 at  Bovada