Last weekend at the Quaker State 400, William Byron took control over the NASCAR standings with his fourth win of the year. The no.24 car led for 19 of 185 laps in a rain-shortened race to get the checkered flag.
My value picks for that race were Chase Elliott (+1100) and Martin Truex Jr. (+2500). Neither even finished in the top 10. It was a risk to take Truex who hasn't done well on superspeedways, but I figured that might not transpire in Atlanta. Wrong!
This week I don't like the early favorite for the Crayon 301 so I present a different option and a few value picks.
Crayon 301 Odds: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
|Martin Truex Jr.||+650|
Odds as of July 12
Should Martin Truex Jr. Be The Favorite For Crayon 301
Truex Jr. didn't do well last week. That's undeniable. But I should have know that was possible based on that type of loop, the veteran driver has struggled in that setting in 19-year Cup series career.
But on intermediate tracks like New Hampshire, Truex has the fourth-best average finish since 2020 at 10.5. When it comes to this The New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Truex, again, is fourth when it comes to average finish at 6.3. Oh, and Joe Gibbs cars hold an average 12.6 finish with a win, five top 5's and seven top 10's.
Not to mention that Truex held the top spot in the standings just a week ago. With Byron winning in Atlanta he's been bumped down to second with a 21-point deficit. So we aren't talking about some guy who just happens to have good numbers in this context. He's got that and he's been one of the best drivers in the field this season.
I know he's only 100-points back of Bell who's the favorite at +550, but in my opinion, it really should be Truex at the top of the oddsboard.
NASCAR Value Picks for the Crayon 301: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
We know who the favorite is and who, at least in my opinion, should be the favorite. Looking at the field, who might be able to nab a win here and give you some extra value?
Kevin Harvick (+1000)
Looking at the same data points that made Truex Jr. my favorite makes Harvick an interesting bet. The no.4 car has the second-best average finish (5.3) at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway since 2020.
He's got the second-best average finish for drivers on intermediate tracks (8.1) since 2020. Take out Jimmie Johnson and his five races (12 fewer than Harvick) and Kevin is first. And Harvick's team (Stewart-Haas Racing), is one of only three teams to pick up a win at New Hampshire.
The vet is very good in this context.
Joey Logano (+1400)
It hasn't been a great run for Joey lately. The defending Cup Champion sits 10th in the standings and has a 14.6 average finish in his last three races.
But Logano has done well on 1-mile intermediate tracks. Since 2020, he's been the only driver with three wins and has the third-best average finish on these types of tracks. This is exactly the type of race where Logano can get his second win of the season and maybe jump up a few spots in the standings.