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Odds to win the Gander Outdoors 400: Kevin Harvick atop the oddsboard

Odds to win the Gander Outdoors 400

The Round of 16 is completed and the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover International Speedway for the first race in the Round of 12. Kevin Harvick won the May race at Dover earlier this season and has the best odds at +250 to grab the checkered flag in the Gander Outdoors 400 this weekend.

BetOnline has Harvick at +250 followed by Kyle Busch at +300, Martin Truex Jr. at +400, Kyle Larson at +700 and Brad Keselowski at +1000 to round out the top five drivers on the oddsboard.

Harvick eyes first win since mid-August

Kevin Harvick racked up seven wins through the first 23 races of the season but hasn’t driven to victory lane since winning at Michigan in mid-August. One of his seven wins earlier this season came at Dover in early May, when he led 201 of the 400 laps in a dominant performance. There hasn’t been a repeat winner at “The Monster Mile” since Jimmie Johnson won the fall race in 2013 and the spring race in 2014. Johnson also won both Dover races in a single season in 2009.

Harvick won the fall race at this track in 2015, his first of two career victories at Dover, and he has six top-five finishes through his 35 starts here. Although the California native hasn’t had a victory since mid-August, he has had three top-five finishes over that span, including a second-place finish at Richmond two weeks ago. Trends aren’t in Harvick’s favor to repeat at Dover and at +250, he simply isn’t worth the wager.

Truex has been consistent at Dover

Martin Truex Jr. flipped a switch in last year’s playoffs en route to a championship, and he has appeared to do a similar thing in 2018. The New Jersey native had three stage wins in the Round of 16 – no other driver had more than one – and he had two third-place finishes over those three races. Truex has eight top-10 finishes at Dover over the last nine races and the other result was an 11th-place finish in 2015. Additionally, the 38-year-old has four straight top-five finishes at the Monster Mile, including a win in the fall race in 2016 and a fourth-place finish in the spring race this year.

Truex hasn’t picked up a win since mid-July but has been competitive, earning four top-five finishes while leading at least one lap in seven of the last 10 races. The reigning champion seems to perform well when the pressure increases and he should be challenging for the win this weekend. At +300, he’s my pick to grab the checkered flag.

Here’s a look at the odds for the full field for the Gander Outdoors 400:

Odds to win The Gander Outdoors 400
  • Kevin Harvick +250
  • Kyle Busch +300
  • Martin Truex Jr. +400
  • Kyle Larson +700
  • Brad Keselowski +1000
  • Chase Elliott +1200
  • Clint Bowyer +1400
  • Joey Logano +1400
  • Ryan Blaney +1800
  • Kurt Busch +2000
  • Jimmie Johnson +2000
  • Denny Hamlin +2200
  • Erik Jones +2500
  • Aric Almirola +4000
  • Daniel Suarez +5000
  • Alex Bowman +5000
  • Jamie McMurray +10000
  • Austin Dillon +10000
  • Paul Menard +12500
  • Ryan Newman +15000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +25000
  • William Byron +30000
  • Matt Kenseth +30000
  • Chris Buescher +50000
  • AJ Allmendinger +50000
  • Kasey Kahne +50000
  • Ty Dillon +100000
  • Ross Chastain +100000
  • JJ Yeley +100000
  • Matt DiBenedetto +100000
  • Michael McDowell +100000
  • Bubba Wallace +100000
  • BJ McLeod +100000
  • Timmy Hill +100000
  • Corey LaJoie +100000
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt +100000
Odds as of October 4 at BetOnline