If you've been paying attention to the NBA playoffs, you already know how hot of a bet the UNDER was throughout the majority of the first two rounds. But since last week things have taken a turn, and the OVER is starting to become the sharp play.
As of May 10, the OVER/UNDER was 20-39-2. Since then, however, all five games have gone above the closing total, bringing it to 25-39-2. The total for Game 1 between the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder opened at 232 at the Sportsbook Las Vegas SuperBook - the highest number in NBA playoff history.
Considering nearly every edition of the NBA postseason in recent memory has concluded with almost the same amount of OVERs as UNDERs, this does not come as much of a surprise. Teams have started to get into an offensive groove, and the sudden boon of scoring has all but ended the abundance of low-scoring games. Sportsbooks have obviously taken note about the UNDER trend, and lower than normal totals have started to become more prevalent.
Take a look at how the last five games have played out for totals bettors.
Date | Away team | Home team | Away score | Home score | Closing total | Differential |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 15 | Miami | Toronto | 89 | 116 | 188 | +17 |
May 13 | Toronto | Miami | 91 | 103 | 188 | +6 |
May 12 | San Antonio | Oklahoma City | 99 | 113 | 197.5 | +14.5 |
May 11 | Portland | Golden State | 121 | 125 | 217.5 | +28.5 |
May 11 | Miami | Toronto | 91 | 99 | 189 | +1 |
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The story of the NBA playoffs, at least at the betting window, continues to be a red-hot UNDER trend. If you haven't been paying attention, listen up.
Heading into Wednesday's action, the UNDER is a sizzling 39-20-2 through the first 61 postseason contests. The total for Heat-Raptors opened at 187, while the OVER/UNDER for Trail Blazers-Warriors was initially set at 215 but has been slowly rising throughout the day.
A major drop off in scoring across the board has been the biggest reason for the trend. Low-scoring affairs have become the norm in this year's playoffs, and sports books have slowly been lowering the OVER/UNDER as each series has gone along.
Here's an updated look at each game that's gone below the closing total.
Date | Away team | Home team | Away score | Home score | Closing total | Differential |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 10 | Oklahoma City | San Antonio | 95 | 91 | 199 | -13 |
May 9 | Toronto | Miami | 87 | 94 | 194 | -13 |
May 8 | Cleveland | Atlanta | 100 | 99 | 203 | -4 |
May 6 | San Antonio | Oklahoma City | 100 | 96 | 200 | -4 |
May 5 | Miami | Toronto | 92 | 96 | 190 | -2 |
May 3 | Portland | Golden State | 99 | 110 | 212 | -3 |
May 2 | Atlanta | Cleveland | 93 | 104 | 199.5 | -2.5 |
May 2 | Oklahoma City | San Antonio | 98 | 97 | 199.5 | -4.5 |
May 1 | Indiana | Toronto | 84 | 89 | 189.5 | -16.5 |
May 1 | Charlotte | Miami | 73 | 106 | 190.5 | -11.5 |
April 29 | Miami | Charlotte | 97 | 90 | 192 | -5 |
April 29 | Toronto | Indiana | 83 | 101 | 192.5 | -8.5 |
April 28 | Atlanta | Boston | 104 | 92 | 198 | -2 |
April 27 | Houston | Golden State | 81 | 114 | 212.5 | -17.5 |
April 27 | Charlotte | Miami | 90 | 88 | 195.5 | -17.5 |
April 26 | Boston | Atlanta | 83 | 110 | 198 | -5 |
April 25 | L.A. Clippers | Portland | 84 | 98 | 205 | -20.5 |
April 25 | Miami | Charlotte | 85 | 98 | 194.5 | -1.5 |
April 24 | Atlanta | Boston | 95 | 104 | 203 | -4 |
April 24 | Golden State | Houston | 121 | 94 | 217.5 | -2.5 |
April 23 | L.A. Clippers | Portland | 88 | 96 | 208.5 | -24.5 |
April 23 | Miami | Charlotte | 80 | 96 | 197.5 | -21.5 |
April 23 | Toronto | Indiana | 83 | 100 | 193 | -10 |
April 22 | San Antonio | Memphis | 96 | 87 | 184 | -1 |
April 21 | Cleveland | Detroit | 101 | 91 | 200.5 | -8.5 |
April 21 | Golden State | Houston | 96 | 97 | 215.5 | -22.5 |
April 21 | Toronto | Indiana | 101 | 85 | 194.5 | -8.5 |
April 20 | Portland | L.A. Clippers | 81 | 102 | 210.5 | -27.5 |
April 20 | Detroit | Cleveland | 90 | 107 | 202 | -5 |
April 19 | Memphis | San Antonio | 68 | 94 | 186 | -24 |
April 19 | Boston | Atlanta | 72 | 89 | 205.5 | -44.5 |
April 18 | Dallas | Oklahoma City | 85 | 84 | 203 | -34 |
April 18 | Indiana | Toronto | 87 | 98 | 210.5 | -0.5 |
April 17 | Portland | L.A. Clippers | 95 | 115 | 210.5 | -0.5 |
April 17 | Memphis | San Antonio | 74 | 106 | 188.5 | -8.5 |
April 16 | Dallas | Oklahoma City | 70 | 108 | 206 | -28 |
April 16 | Boston | Atlanta | 101 | 102 | 206 | -3 |
April 16 | Houston | Golden State | 78 | 104 | 225 | -43 |
April 16 | Indiana | Toronto | 100 | 90 | 194.5 | -4.5 |