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NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Preview

Miami needs to win to force a Game 7 and they are big favorites to do so in NBA Finals betting odds action this week.

The Spurs got a terrific performance from Manu Ginobili to win Game 5 and Danny Green continued to bomb away. But can the Spurs win as road underdogs against a determined Heat team that will surely be pumped at home?

Miami was laying seven points in early Game 6 wagering. The total was sitting around 191.

Even down 3-2 in the series, the Heat remain series favorites at several sportsbooks who seem to believe Miami can win two straight at home to clinch the title.

View San Antonio vs Miami Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
Miami opened as 7-point favorites at online sportsbook Bovada, while the NBA total was sitting around 190 at Sportsbook.ag for those who prefer OVER/UNDER betting.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
According to new Power Rankings at Odds Shark, it's the No. 6-rated Heat and the No. 3-rated Spurs in this matchup. Predictive computer formulas point to a 107-106 win for the Heat on Tuesday.

Betting Preview Tips from Bovada:

San Antonio Spurs fans were met with a pleasant surprise this weekend. The veteran franchise, successfully boosted by the resurgence of their age-old core, beat the Miami Heat 114-104. Can Manu Ginobili and company turn back the clock yet again this Tuesday? Will it be enough to beat the NBA odds and clinch the 2013 championship in six?

Bet on the NBA Finals and get a free 50% Bonus at Bovada

At a time when San Antonio’s success seemed hinged just as much on the contributions of youngsters Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard as it did on old-timers Ginobili and Tim Duncan, the Spurs managed to squeeze contributions out of both age groups in Game 5.

With Ginobili and point guard Tony Parker firing on all cylinders, Green and Leonard were quick to follow suit. The result was a momentum shifting performance that has San Antonio back in the driver’s seat as their NBA Finals series shifts back to Miami.

The NBA spread may favor the Heat with -7 odds, but the Spurs have been beating basketball odds for two years now. In the wake of Miami’s disappointing Game 5, oddsmakers and analysts are reviewing their NBA betting strategies.

It’s not every day, after all, that a twice waived D-Leaguer (Green) sets an NBA record for three-pointers made in a critical series while his 35-year-old counterpart drops a season-high 24 points with 10 assists. Good luck with that, LeBron. These are the NBA Finals.

How They Match Up:
In rebounding, the battle of the boards features Miami's No. 30-rated squad against San Antonio's No. 21-rated roster. When it comes to long-range shooting, Miami rates No. 3 in the league with 8.7 per game, while their foes tonight rank No. 7 with 8.1 per outing.

Defensively, the Spurs feature the league's No. 12-rated defense on the road, giving up 98.9 points per game. Miami, meanwhile, comes in at No. 4 in the league in scoring at home.

Last time out for Miami, they were a 114-104 loser as they battled the Spurs on the road. The Heat failed to cover in the match as a 1-point favorite, while 218 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. LeBron James went off for 25 points and added 6 rebounds but it wasn't enough as San Antonio defeated Miami, 114-104 at AT&T Center.

San Antonio Spurs Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Miami are 8-2
After playing Miami are 5-5
After a win are 6-4

Miami Heat Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
Before playing San Antonio are 6-4
After playing San Antonio are 4-6
After a loss are 10-0

A few Spurs at Heat trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of San Antonio's last 19 games when playing on the road against Miami
San Antonio is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 19 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Miami is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio

Next up:
San Antonio at Miami, Thursday, June 20
Miami home to San Antonio, Thursday, June 20