The Miami Heat (56-30 SU, 49-36-1 ATS) will look to advance to the second round on Tuesday when they host the Atlanta Hawks (46-42, 40-48) at FTX Arena in Game 5. The Heat are coming off a huge win in Game 4 – can they repeat that performance on home court? Find out in our Hawks vs Heat prediction.

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Hawks vs Heat Odds & Analysis

Opening Odds

The Heat opened as a sizable 7-point favorite with the total set at 218 points. The UNDER is 6-0 in Atlanta’s last six games and 5-1 in Miami’s last six. Miami has dominated this matchup at home, winning eight of the last nine meetings at FTX Arena – a potential sign of things to come for your Hawks vs Heat prediction.

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Atlanta’s Offense Runs Dry In Game 4

The Hawks were stifled in Game 4 as they fell 110-86 and went down 3-1 in the series. De’Andre Hunter led the team with 24 points while only two other players scored in double digits for Atlanta. Trae Young was held to just nine points and five assists on 3-of-11 shooting.

Atlanta had an elite offense this season, averaging 113.4 points per game (6th), but Miami’s third-ranked defense has held the Hawks to just 98.3 points in the series. A big reason for the offensive fall-off has been the play of Young, who has scored under 10 points in two of Atlanta’s three losses.

Lou Williams (back) is out while Clint Capela (knee) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) are questionable for Tuesday.

Butler Excellent Again In Game 4 Win

The Heat put up a classic playoff performance in Game 4 as they not only shut down the Hawks but also got a big night from Jimmy Butler. Miami’s top scorer had 36 points in the game while four others scored in double digits for the Heat.

After falling behind 37-29, the Heat went on separate 15-0 and 11-0 runs before halftime to take a 55-41 lead into the break while holding the Hawks to a season-low 15-point second quarter. Miami controlled the ball the entire game, taking 92 shots to Atlanta’s 75 while forcing the Hawks into 15 turnovers compared to just six for the Heat.

Kyle Lowry (leg) is out while Caleb Martin (ankle) and PJ Tucker (calf) are questionable.

Hawks vs Heat Pick & Insights

Hawks: Keys To Cover

Simply put, the Hawks will need more from Young to stay alive in this series. Atlanta is 1-1 when their star point guard scores 20-plus points and 0-2 when he gets shut down. Young has averaged 17 field-goal attempts in his two performances of 20-plus points but just 11.5 in the other two contests. He’ll need to find a way to create some open looks in Game 5.

Heat: Keys To Cover

If the Heat just stick to their game plan, they should be through to the second round. Miami has done an excellent job containing Young and forcing other less talented players to take shots, while Butler has been aggressive and in rhythm. If those things remain consistent in Game 5, the series should be over.

Odds Shark’s Computer Hawks vs Heat Prediction: Heat -7.5

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Shark Bites
  • Miami is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games.
  • Atlanta is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games.
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

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