Bucks Big Favorites to Continue Mastery of Atlanta

Milwaukee (54-29 SU, 38-45 ATS) has dominated the Hawks (49-35, 47-36-1) in recent years, a trend the Bucks hope to continue when they host Atlanta in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final. The Hawks have lost their last seven visits to Fiserv Forum and opened as 7.5-point underdogs.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Hawks find themselves as underdogs for the ninth straight time, but the opener of +7.5 is the most points they’ve caught in nearly two months. Early bettors have been more interested in backing the UNDER, however, driving the total down to 226 by the time of writing.

Atlanta News & Notes

To say the Hawks haven’t fared well recently against Milwaukee would be an understatement. Atlanta has lost its last seven road games vs the Bucks and is 2-11 SU against Milwaukee over the past four years, including a 1-2 mark this season. The Hawks did, however, win their most recent meeting with Milwaukee — a 111-104 victory in late April, when Trae Young wasn’t in the lineup.

Bogdan Bogdanovic paced the Hawks with 32 points in that upset victory, but the sharpshooting forward might not be available in Game 1 after tweaking his knee in Atlanta’s Game 7 win Sunday in Philadelphia. Bogdanovic, whom the Bucks nearly acquired during the offseason before a sign-and-trade agreement with Sacramento fell through, has scored just 17 points in Atlanta’s last three games after averaging nearly 20 in the first four games of Round 2.

Young enters tonight’s action having scored at least 20 points in every game of the playoffs, although he was just 5-for-23 from the field on Sunday night. The Hawks were bailed out in Game 7 by a 27-point effort from Kevin Huerter and another solid performance by their defense. Atlanta held Philly to 100 points or less in three of the final four games of the series and has now gone UNDER the total in 12 of its last 15 games overall.

Milwaukee News & Notes

The Bucks could be vulnerable to an emotional letdown following Saturday’s dramatic overtime victory in Brooklyn that clinched Milwaukee’s second trip to the Eastern finals in three years. “The job is not done. That’s the message in the locker room,” Giannis Antetokounmpo told ESPN. “We got to enjoy this moment … but we have to put this in the past and focus on our next opponent.”

Antetokounmpo is coming off a tremendous series against the Nets, capped by a 40-point, 13-rebound performance in Game 7. The Greek Freak scored at least 30 points in six of the seven games in the series and is now averaging 28.8 points per game in the playoffs. Antetokounmpo has been especially lethal when he’s resisted the urge to jack up shots from behind the arc, hitting two-point field goals at a 61.5 percent clip in the postseason.

Khris Middleton has also been on a tear at both ends of the court for the Bucks, averaging 28 points per outing in his last three games and collecting five steals in each of his last two. Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday looks to bounce back after missing 31 of his 44 field-goal attempts in the last two games, although the veteran guard did hit a couple of key shots down the stretch of Game 7.

Betting Pick: Bucks -7.5

Expect Milwaukee to start this series with a statement performance at home, where the Bucks are undefeated in five playoff games, with three of those wins coming by double digits.