I've got some NBA trends of the day to keep you on the edge of your seat. Betting on basketball is hard without some research on your side, so I've compiled the numbers for you.
Today's NBA player prop trends focus on a few star players, like Victor Wembanyama and Steph Curry. I've also analyzed several surprising team trends, like the Celtics' weak ATS record at home.
NBA Best Player Prop Trends Today
- The LA Clippers are 10-3 (76.9%) ATS in their last 13 games at home - (Clippers -4.5, -110 at FanDuel)
- Zach Edey has gone UNDER 6.5 points in 4 of his last 5 games vs. top 10 defenses for points allowed (4.6 points/game average) - (+100 at FanDuel)
- The Boston Celtics are 7-17 (29.2%) ATS in their last 24 games at home (Spurs +8.5, -110 at FanDuel)
- Victor Wembanyama has gone UNDER 12.5 rebounds in 12 of his last 14 games (11.3 rebounds/game average) - (-135 at BetMGM)
- The OVER hit in 14 of the Oklahoma City Thunder's last 17 games - (OVER 219.5, -105 at BetMGM)
- Isaiah Collier has gone UNDER 11.5 points in 14 of his last 18 games at home (7.4 points/game average) - (-115 at bet365)
- Buddy Hield has gone UNDER 1.5 turnovers in 10 of his last 13 games (1.2 turnovers/game average) - (-125 at bet365)
- Steph Curry has gone OVER 5.5 assists in 7 of his last 9 games on the road (7.1 assists/game average) - (-135 at FanDuel)
San Antonio Spurs +8.5 vs Celtics (-110 at FanDuel)
As Outlier has pointed out, the C's are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games at home. Yeesh. Of course, Boston entered the 2024-25 season as favorites to win the NBA 'Chip. After the team's dominant playoff run last year, it was only natural that the Celtics would see some wide spreads this season. As a result, it's been tough to cover.
The Celtics currently rock a 9-point margin of victory this year. That's damn good! But, as I said, the Celtics have faced tough spreads — an average of 9.5 points to be exact. Boston's 22-31-1 ATS record ranks 25th in basketball.
The C's are shorthanded vs the Spurs Wednesday, too. Jaylen Brown is questionable with a knee issue, and Jrue Holiday has been ruled out.
If this trend holds, Victor Wembanyama and company should have a smooth cover against this Celtics squad, which buckles at home. I like this bet.
Victor Wembanyama UNDER 12.5 Rebounds (-135 at BetMGM)
BetMGM is offering an elevated total here, as most books have Wemby's line at 11.5, hence the juiced odds. Still, I'm all over this bet in what will be a tightly contested game in Boston.
Let me make this clear: this bet isn't about fading Wemby; it's more about backing the Celtics' strong defense. The Spurs center averages 11 boards per game, but there are a few numbers that have me on his UNDER tonight. As a team, the Celtics stymie opposing offenses, limiting them to 108.2 points per game (fourth-best). The team also yields just 10.5 offensive rebounds per game (eighth-best). Additionally, the Celtics' defensive schemes often focus on boxing out and controlling the glass, further challenging opposing players' rebounding potential.
Here's the kicker: this team shuts down opposing centers. Boston limits centers to just 14.1 rebounds per game, meaning it'll be unlikely Wemby cashes his OVER unless he plays 40+ minutes.
Steph Curry OVER 5.5 Assists (-135 at FanDuel)
Curry has been on a tear lately when it comes to dishing out assists, going over 5.5 dimes in 7 of his last 9 road games. He’s averaging 7.1 assists per game in that stretch, and tonight’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks sets up perfectly for him to keep it going.
Curry’s always been a problem for Dallas. Over his career, he’s averaged 6.8 assists in 45 regular-season games against them, and in their most recent meeting back in November, he dropped 9 assists in a Warriors win. He’s clearly comfortable finding his teammates against this team.
On top of that, the Mavericks have had a tough time stopping ball movement this season. They’re giving up 26.75 assists per game, putting them 20th in the NBA. If Dallas keeps struggling to lock down opposing playmakers, Curry should have no trouble carving them up with his passing.
When you mix in Curry’s hot streak, his history of success against Dallas, and the Mavs’ leaky defense, betting on him to go over 5.5 assists tonight feels like a solid play. Don’t overthink this one!
