After a much-needed break for players (and bettors) on the NBA season, we get back to our regularly scheduled programming with a heavyweight tilt between the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have been the toast of the East this season and have gone 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games, with seven of those wins coming by double digits. The Celtics, on the other hand, are one of the worst spread bets in road games this season and have lost their last four games in Milwaukee.
The Bucks opened as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 228 (since moved to 227).
Standout Stats
- The Bucks are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games and 2-0 SU and ATS in two games this season when on three or more days’ rest.
- The Bucks own the best point differential in the NBA at +9.5 and that mark increases to +13.2 for home games.
- The Celtics have lost 13 road games so far this season after only losing 13 in all of last season.
- The Celtics rank fifth in three-point percentage in road games (36.6) on 35.2 attempts and the Bucks rank last in the NBA in three-point attempts allowed (35.2) in home games.
- The Celtics have won their last three games as road underdogs (vs the Sixers, Timberwolves and Pelicans).
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bucks’ last six games at home (average combined score: 219.67) while the UNDER has also hit in the Celtics’ last six games on the road (average combined score: 211.5).
My Best Bet for Celtics vs Bucks
Bucks -5.5
I have been on the wrong side of bets for both of these teams this year and I’m not making the same mistake again. Although the Celtics hammered the Sixers in their last road game, the Bucks are a completely different animal. Milwaukee beat this team in Boston in December and has been so dominant at home that there are only a few teams that I think can beat the Bucks on their home floor and the Celtics aren’t one of them. The C’s have lost too many road games this year to be trusted in this scenario and at -5.5, that’s the sweet spot for a Milwaukee team that leads the NBA in home point differential.
