Two teams in the East trending in different directions will take the court when the Boston Celtics face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The Celtics have dropped their last two games at home after having huge leads vs the Lakers and Clippers, while the Sixers look like a monster with their newest addition Tobias Harris and have won their last two contests by a combined 30 points.
The Sixers opened as 5-point favorites (since moved to -6) with a total of 226.5.
- The Sixers are ranked 2nd in points scored per game at home.
- The Celtics are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- The UNDER has hit in the Celtics’ last 5 road games.
Small Sample Size but Sixers Offense Looks Incredible
Capping NBA games after the trade deadline can be tricky because all of the stats and trends for a team can sometimes feel irrelevant if it added or subtracted key players. Well, the Sixers offense is ranked second in the NBA in points per home game but adding some excellent players like Tobias Harris and Boban Marjanovic has only improved that front as Philly went off for 143 points in its last game vs the Lakers. Harris looks like a perfect fit for the Sixers and scored 22 against L.A. He has hit five of his eight three-point attempts since coming to the City of Brotherly Love.
The Sixers now look like a juggernaut if everyone is fully healthy, and Joel Embiid should be a force in this matchup. He has scored 25 or more points in 15 of the Sixers’ last 17 games (when he played) but it’s the three-point shooting that makes me all-in on Philly tonight. I know it’s a small sample size but in the Sixers’ last two games with the new-look lineup, they shot 22-for-46 from deep and look scary offensively. Philly also needs this game because the Celtics have the 2-0 lead in the matchup tiebreaker for playoff seeding.
Celtics Look in Disarray
It’s not the fact that Boston has lost its last two games at home but how it lost. The Celtics had leads of 15 points against the Lakers and Clippers in the second half and proceeded to blow them in front of their home fans. Now, the news gets worse as Kyrie Irving is ruled out with a knee injury and Marcus Morris is talking to the media about how there’s dysfunction in the locker room.
The Celtics have also been a horrible road bet lately as they’ve gone 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven away games and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as road underdogs. I know they have enough talent to compete with any team in the league but at 9-16-1 ATS in 27 road games this season, I can’t endorse a Boston spread pick when the drama coming out of Beantown has taken over the team.
UNDER ALERT
The total opened at 226.5 and trends are pointing to an UNDER. The UNDER has hit in the Celtics’ last five road games with an average combined score of 209.6 points per game. The Celtics defense has still been decent on the road this season by holding teams to 107 points per game so with Kyrie out, look for Boston to attempt to slow the tempo down to try to keep this game within arm’s reach. The UNDER has also hit in four of the Celtics’ last five games vs divisional opponents.
My Pick Is…
To take the Sixers to win and cover the spread. At this line, I feel comfortable taking the Sixers to win a two-possession game and with the Celtics crumbling from within, I think Boston could be in trouble to keep this game within 10 points.
