The first-round series between the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets may not be as dramatic as the end result thus far but the drama on the court has made it a must-watch. Joel Embiid’s elbows and Ben Simmons’ “average” play has not stopped the Sixers from taking a 3-1 series lead and Philly will look to close it out at Wells Fargo Arena tonight.
The Sixers opened as 8.5-point favorites with a total of 229.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- When playing at home during the regular season, the Sixers were one of the best three-point shooting teams in the NBA. They shot an impressive 38.3 percent (ranked third) on only 29.4 attempts (ranked 24th). However, in this series, they have been awful with their deep shots as they rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in three-point shooting percentage while ranking last in three-pointers made per game.
- Joel Embiid has been a source of controversy in this series along with being an excellent source of offense. The center sat out Game 3 while the Sixers took care of business, and scored 31 points in Game 4 while hitting 12 of his 20 shot attempts and grabbing 16 rebounds. However, he’s been given two flagrant fouls with his moves in the post on Jarrett Allen and his balky knee has limited him to 22.3 minutes per game in the series.
- Although the Nets may be averaging a lot of points in this series (114.3), their shooting has been inefficient and they rank outside of the top 10 in both field-goal and three-point percentage among playoff teams. Their defense has also dropped off a cliff as they ranked in the top five in opponent field-goal percentage (41 percent) after the all-star break but in this series, they’ve allowed the Sixers to shoot 48.9 percent from the floor.
- After having six players score in double figures in Game 1, the Nets’ offensive contributions have dropped off and they haven’t gotten offensive consistency from their starters. Outside of D’Angelo Russell, the remaining four starters are averaging less than 10 points per game in this series. Head coach Kenny Atkinson tried to change that in Game 4 by inserting Caris LeVert into the starting lineup and he responded with 25 points and shot 50 percent from the floor.
- The OVER has hit in two of the four games in this series and in five of eight games that these two teams have played since the start of the regular season. Totals bettors may want to pay attention to the Sixers because when they score a ton of points, the OVER typically follows as Philly is averaging 128 points per game when the OVER hit and hasn’t scored less than 120 points in games where the total was exceeded.
My Best Bet for Nets vs Sixers
OVER 229.5
The Nets offense looked to have had a spark when they put Caris LeVert into the lineup and I think another high-scoring game is coming for this first-round series. With it being an elimination game for the Nets, I expect them to push the pace to try to tire out Joel Embiid.
As mentioned in the stats above, the OVER will likely come down to how well the Sixers score the basketball and I think they won’t shoot this poorly from behind the arc for five straight games. You could talk me into Nets +8.5 as I think this series will go to six or seven games, but I think the OVER is the safer play with the stakes involved and the Nets won’t likely quit until the final buzzer, even in garbage time.
