The Portland Trail Blazers are doing their best to stay afloat with guard CJ McCollum out of the lineup due to injury and wrap up a four-game homestand when they host the Brooklyn Nets tonight. The Nets have been streaky since the all-star break but they tend to keep games close against winning teams as they’re 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in that spot. However, the Blazers have been an excellent home bet this season and are 9-4-1 ATS in 14 games vs East teams at the Moda Center.
The Blazers opened as 6-point favorites with a total of 225.5 (since moved to 224).
STANDOUT STATS
- The Blazers will be without CJ McCollum for the foreseeable future but they haven’t missed him over the last three games, winning all three while going 1-1-1 ATS.
- The Blazers have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season at 28-9 SU and 22-14-1 ATS. They own a +8.1 point differential in those games and are 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 home games when playing against the Eastern Conference.
- The Nets have been feisty all season and seem to keep it close when they face teams with winning records. Over their last 14 games in that spot, the Nets have covered the spread in 10 of them.
- Brooklyn’s defense has been legit since the all-star break, ranking ninth in points allowed per game (108.5), first in opponent field-goal percentage (42.2 percent) and second in three-point percentage (31.2 percent).
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Nets’ last 10 games (avg. combined score: 215.6) but the OVER has hit in 11 of the Blazers’ last 12 home games (avg. combined score: 235.8). The total has also gone OVER in five of the last seven games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 226.0).
My Best Bet for Nets vs Blazers
OVER 224
I couldn’t decide on a spread because I think both teams make a strong case to cover the spread but I think the OVER is the smarter play, mainly because of how the Blazers’ defense has been at home since the break. In five home games after the all-star game, the Blazers are allowing over 115 points per game while putting up 119 themselves.
A lot of OVER trends support the pick too, so I’d rather bank on a high-scoring game than for either team to get me paid on the spread at this juncture of the season.
