The worst formula for ending a three-game losing streak is taking on the second-best team in basketball on no rest, and the Milwaukee Bucks will need to somehow overcome that on Monday night as the 11.5-point underdogs on the road (-110) against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Paycom Center.
Here's a spread, moneyline, total, and player prop expert pick for this matchup on February 3, 2025.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Odds
Preview: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | +11.5 (-110) | +420 | O 232.5 (-110) |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -11.5 (-110) | -560 | U 232.5 (-110) |
Odds as of February 3, 2025 at Sportsbook
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Expert Picks
Milwaukee Bucks ATS +11.5 (-110), Oklahoma City Thunder ML (-560)
The 11.5-point spread at FanDuel Sportsbook is the largest of the 2024-25 season painting Milwaukee as an underdog, which goes to show the current state of the team and the faith oddsmakers have in the home Thunder to cover, which they've done at 6-4 ATS when favored by at least that much and 9-1 SU. The Bucks are certainly vulnerable having dropped their last three games with a 1-4 record over their last five, and they've never once covered in the five instances when entering a game as an underdog of 6.5 points or more, although they did prevail twice.
Having just taken the hardwood in a 132-119 defeat at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday, which was Milwaukee's first home game coming off a four-game road swing, the team now must embark on another three-game road trip and kick it off against a 38-9 Thunder team that currently owns a six-game lead atop the Western Conference. The Bucks are 4-4 SU when playing on the second night of a back to back and 2-5-1 ATS, as well.
Oklahoma City has failed to cover in two of its last three home outings, but it did just drop 144 points on the Sacramento Kings on Saturday without the services of newly-named All-Star Jalen Williams, who's currently listed as questionable to suit up Monday with a right wrist sprain. Whether or not such success can be replicated sans Williams (should he rest) against a Bucks defense which sits just outside of the top 10 at 11th allowing 112.1 points per 100 possessions remains to be seen.
Milwaukee is too good with Giannis Antetokounmpo at the forefront for its misfortune to continue after losing each of its last three by an average of 17.3 points. If the NBA Cup final was any indicator, with the Bucks ultimately winning by holding the Thunder to just 81 points back in December, then there's at least some merit to thinking this latest meeting can stay relatively competitive, although Oklahoma City should still win.
OVER 232.5 Total Points (-110)
The Thunder haven't gone UNDER a point total at home in nearly a month, and even on no rest, Milwaukee is level at 4-4 in the OVER/UNDER market under such criteria.
The NBA Cup Final only totalled 178 points, which would be well below the 232.5 points on Monday, but there was obviously more at stake that day and the neutral building probably didn't help matters ether.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Player Prop
Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-122)
Isaiah Hartenstein hasn't grabbed fewer than 12 rebounds in a game over his last five appearances for the Thunder, averaging 14.6 boards during that stretch.
He also had 12 in 32 minutes of action versus the Bucks out in Las Vegas, with the 7-footer having also gone OVER this number in 17 of his 27 games with Oklahoma City at a 63-percent hit rate.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Trends
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has exceeded 10.5 1Q points in eight of his last 10 games (13.3 1Q points/game average).
- Lu Dort has failed to exceed 9.5 points in four of his last five games (seven points/game average).
- Taurean Prince has failed to exceed 11.5 points + rebounds in 10 of his last 13 games on the road (9.2 points + rebounds/game average).
*all betting trends courtesy of Outlier
