Our NBA team of Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello is here throughout the 2024 Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks offering up their moneyline, spread, and total expert picks, with the best-of-seven series potentially ending on Friday night in Game 4 at the American Airlines Center in a clean sweep.
Let's take a look at all of their picks as Boston looks to set a new record with its 18th championship win.
[nba_bet_25_get_5_:BET99-2374158]NBA Finals Expert Pick Results
Expert | Record | Units |
---|---|---|
Christopher Walder | 5-1 | 3.73 |
Nick Holz | 2-1 | 0.82 |
David Caraviello | 1-2 | -1.09 |
Jump To Picks
- Christopher Walder's Pick: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks ML
- Christopher Walder's Pick: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks OVER/UNDER
- David Caraviello's Pick: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Spread
- Nick Holz's Pick: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Team Total
- Nick Holz's Pick: Boston Celtics Winning Margin
Boston Celtics Vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Preview & Picks
Matchup Page: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Same-Game Parlay: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4
Player Props: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4
Team | Spread | Money | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Boston Celtics | +1.5 (-120) | -105 | O 211.5 (-110) |
Dallas Mavericks | -1.5 (+100) | -115 | U 211.5 (-110) |
Christopher Walder's Pick: Boston Celtics ML (-105)
Oddsmakers continue to offer incredible value on the Celtics winning on the moneyline. You'd think after having Boston at plus money in Game 3 for what was ultimately a seven-point win on the road - avoiding a 21-point collapse in the fourth quarter, mind you - that the ML for Game 4 would lean heavily towards the green and white brigade.
That's not the case as of early Thursday morning, so now is the time to strike. Since 2006, teams up 3-0 in the Finals heading into a Game 4 on the road are 2-1 SU to complete the sweep, which is a rarity in this round as its only been accomplished 10 times ever.
Dallas' best chance to make this competitive was on Wednesday with Kristaps Porzingis held out of action, and while a 22-2 run late kept things interesting on the scoreboard, Boston still had so much firepower offensively sans Porzingis and buried clutch shot after clutch shot while Luka Doncic fouled out with minutes to go.
The Mavericks hadn't dropped consecutive games all postseason prior to squaring off with the Celtics, and didn't lose four in a row once during the regular season either. The latter will change on Friday with a heartbreaking end to what's been an otherwise memorable playoff run for the franchise.
Christopher Walder's Pick: UNDER 211.5 Total Points (-110)
The 2011.5 total prop is the lowest of the Finals, with the UNDER hitting in three-straight games between Boston and Dallas. The Celtics haven't exceeded 107 points in any of their wins, while the Mavericks have yet to score in the triple digits.
We've followed this trend throughout the series and it hasn't failed us yet, especially with the Mavericks' offense being drier than the Sahara with Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington barely shooting over 40 percent from the field and under 30 percent from behind the arc. Doncic is pushing through a litany of injuries, but he's not nearly as effective as he could be with a clean bill of health.
Game 4 will be yet another low-scoring affair with a title coronation at the end of it all.
[nba_bet_25_get_5_:BET99-2374158]David Caraviello's Pick: Boston Celtics ATS +1.5 (-120)
All the trends that have been dominant throughout these playoffs—Dallas being good on the road and great against the spread, Boston being somewhat vulnerable at home—have gone out the window in the NBA Finals. The common thread is the Celtics continuing to win outright, compiling a 15-2 record in the playoffs and entering Game 4 with 10 straight wins. With the 1-point spread so narrow, you might as well go with Boston to close it out.
Nick Holz's Pick: Dallas Mavericks Team Total UNDER 104.5 Points (+104)
I have to ride with Chris totals trend in Game 4. Boston's dominant defense has held the Mavericks to under 100 points in all three games so far this series. Even with a series-high 62 points from Irving and Doncic, the Mavs failed to get into triple digits.
With the shooting touch of P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones all but gone, Dallas' have consistently struggled to generate offense in the NBA Finals. As Chris describes, Luka is more of less held together by glue at this point, and likely has a far more significant injury than he's letting on. That along with Irving's previous struggles against the Celtics are a recipe for disaster in Game 4. This one could get ugly quickly, and may turn into a large blowout in the second half.
I love the value on Dallas' team total of UNDER 104.5 points at +104 odds.
Nick Holz's Pick: Boston Celtics Winning Margin 11+ (+350)
Let's swing for the fences. In what could be the final NBA game of the season, the trend point towards the Boston Celtics winning Game 4 in a runaway sweep.
We've already documented the Dallas Mavericks offensive struggles. On top of those, home teams have struggled of late in Game 4, going 2-8 SU and ATS in the NBA Finals over the last 10 years. Furthermore, home underdogs are juat 1-7 both SU and ATS in their last eight tries. Should the Celtics go on a huge run, much like they did in the third quarter of Wednesday night's game, the Mavericks may be forced to call off the dogs early.
Doncic is hurt, barring Game 3 Kyrie has struggled, and nobody else on the Mavericks seems capable of picking up the torch and scoring the basketball. That could lead to a huge blowout as the Celtics aim to put a cherry on top of their phenomenal season. I like the value on Boston to win by 11+ points at +350 on Friday night.