The Golden State Warriors (64-33 SU, 49-44-4 ATS) are solid home favorites as they welcome the Dallas Mavericks (61-38, 57-40-2) to Chase Center on Thursday for Game 5 of the Western Conference final. Can Golden State clinch the series and advance to the NBA Finals or will Dallas win its second straight game on the brink of elimination? Find out in our Mavericks vs Warriors prediction.
Mavericks vs Warriors Odds & Analysis
The Warriors opened as a 6-point favorite for Game 5 with the total set at 215.5 points. The OVER is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between the two teams, while Golden State has won 10 straight contests at home – a clear nod to the hosts for your Mavericks vs Warriors prediction.
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Depth Scoring Helps Mavericks Stave Off Elimination
Luka Doncic led the way with 30 points and 14 boards and finally got some help from his teammates as the Mavericks won Game 4 by a score of 119-109 to stay alive in the series. Dorian Finney-Smith added 23 points while four other players finished in double digits for Dallas.
Doncic recorded his third consecutive outing of 30-plus points and fifth in his last six games. Ironically, the Mavericks lost Games 2 and 3 despite 40 or more points from Doncic each night, but Dallas’ star guard got plenty of offensive support in Game 4 – something he hadn’t had in the three prior losses. The Mavericks’ 119 points was their most in the series and third-highest of these playoffs.
Warriors’ Fourth-Quarter Rally Comes Up Short
The Warriors fell in a hole in the first half of Game 4, trailing 62-47 at the break, and the Mavericks extended their lead to 99-70 by the end of the third quarter. Golden State outscored Dallas 39-20 in the final frame, but it was too little, too late as their comeback attempt came up short. Steph Curry led the team with just 20 points while six others scored in double digits.
The loss snapped Golden State’s nine-game win streak in the Western Conference final, though the Warriors will still be confident heading into Game 5 given their dominance at home in these playoffs. The last time Golden State lost a game at Chase Center was way back on March 30 against the Phoenix Suns.
Otto Porter Jr. (foot) is questionable for Thursday’s matchup.
Mavericks vs Warriors Pick & Insights
Mavericks: Keys To Cover
Dallas was finally able to spread out the scoring and was rewarded with a win in Game 4. We know Doncic is likely good for 30 or 40 points, but the question is whether the depth scoring will make another appearance. If it does, the Mavericks could extend their playoff lives again.
Warriors: Keys To Cover
Curry had a bit of an off-night in Game 4 as he shot just 7-for-16 from the field and 2-for-5 from three-point range so look for him to come out hungry on Thursday. The Warriors as a team sank just 10 shots from beyond the arc – they’ll need to bounce back in that department in order to end this series in Game 5.
NBA Computer Pick: Warriors -7
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Odds Shark Staff Thu, Jun 23, 2:13pm