The Phoenix Suns look for some sort of solace as they return home for two games when they tip off against the Dallas Mavericks at the Talking Stick Resort Arena. Phoenix picked up one of its four victories on the year in its season opener against Dallas in a 121-100 triumph but now finds itself on a 10-game slide. The Mavericks are on a three-game winning streak and are a 7-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 211 points.
- Phoenix is 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games (avg. losing margin: 16.5).
- Dallas is 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games (avg. winning margin: 13).
- Dallas is 0-6 SU and ATS in its last six games against Phoenix.
Suns are a complete disaster
This season has been a struggle for Phoenix and it is on its worst streak to date, dropping its last 10 games with an average losing margin of 16.5. For six of those games, they have been without starting point guard Devin Booker and he will be out of the lineup in tonight’s game as well as he’s dealing with a hamstring injury. On the year, the Suns have won just four games (one against Dallas) and are scoring the second-fewest points per game at 102.2; over the 10-game slide, that number has dropped to 98.5 ppg. Defensively, they are giving up the sixth-most ppg at 114.1 – not a great recipe for success.
Additionally, they are allowing plenty of open looks as they contest the fewest shots per game in the NBA at 57.3, which has led to their opponents shooting 48.6 percent from the floor, the highest percentage in the league. Meanwhile, ball possession has been an issue for Phoenix as it’s averaging the sixth-most turnovers per game at 16.3, resulting in opponents scoring 21.2 points off its turnovers, the second-most in the Association.
Mavs May get a boost from a returning veteran
Dallas has turned a corner on the season following a six-game losing slide from late October into its first game in November. Since then, the Mavericks have gone 13-4, including an ongoing three-game winning streak and tonight, longtime leader Dirk Nowitzki is making his season debut after missing the first 26 games with an ankle injury. The native of Germany is the all-time franchise leader in games, points and rebounds among many other categories and is set to play in his 21st season, all with Dallas. Offensively, the Mavericks are led by Harrison Barnes and 2018 third overall draft pick Luka Doncic, who are each averaging 18 points per game. The team is scoring 110.2 points per game this season, which has risen to 111.6 over their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Mavs are surrendering the ninth-fewest points per game at 108, which has dropped slightly to 107 over their last 10. They are scoring 14.3 points off of second chances in their last 10 games, ranking eighth in the NBA, which can be directly correlated to them grabbing 11 offensive boards per game to rank 11th. One area of concern for Dallas is its turnovers. The team averages 16.3 per game, which is the third-most in the league, but Phoenix scores just 16.1 points per game off turnovers, which is the ninth-fewest.
Should you be on the OVER?
The Suns and Mavericks rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring this season and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 211 points. Phoenix averages just 102.2 ppg this year, which is the second-fewest in the NBA, and that has plummeted to 98.5 ppg over its 10-game losing slide. Conversely, Dallas is averaging 1.4 more points per game over its last 10 matches than its season average of 111.6. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER or pushed in six of the Mavericks’ last seven games, which had an average combined score of 214.42.
The Suns have had an average combined score of 213.17 over their last six games. Although Phoenix’s offense has been atrocious lately, Dallas has allowed 100 or more points in nine of its last 10 games with opponents averaging 107 ppg. I don’t feel confident either way on the total but if I had to make a choice, I’d be on the OVER.
My Take on Dallas vs Phoenix
I like the Mavericks to cover the 7-point spread tonight. Have I mentioned yet how bad the Suns have been recently, especially without starting point guard Devin Booker? They are on a 10-game losing slide with an average losing margin of 16.5 and have only found victory four times all year.
Meanwhile, Dallas has been rolling since the start of November, going 13-5 with an average winning margin of 12.69. Lastly, with the return of Dirk Nowitzki, I think the Mavs are going to be chomping at the bit to avenge that season-Sportsbook loss to the Suns and I think they roll tonight.
