The Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings are two of the best spread bets in the Western Conference, but the Kings are catching the Mavericks where they are most vulnerable this season – on the second half of a back-to-back. Dallas is 0-10 SU in this spot on the road and has lost the last two games in this spot by an average of 16 points. The Kings open as an 8.5-point favorite with the total at 229.5.
Mavericks vs Kings Game Center
Standout Stats
- Dallas’ average losing margin in the second game of back-to-backs on the road this season is 12.1. That includes ATS losses as 11.5-, 11- and 9.5-point dogs and even once as a 6-point favorite.
- Sacramento is 21-15 SU and 23-11-2 ATS on home court this season. However, the Kings are a much more pedestrian 11-11 SU and 13-9 ATS vs Western Conference opponents. Meanwhile, Dallas is 2-19 SU and 9-12 ATS as a visitor in its own conference.
- The 8.5 points are the most that the Kings have laid to the Mavericks on home court since March 16, 1997, almost 22 years ago to the day – a game that the Mavs won 89-88 straight up. Erick Strickland had 21 for the Mavs while Mitch Richmond led all scorers with 26 for the Kings.
- The Mavericks have the No. 28 scoring offense in the NBA since the all-star break with 106.7 points per game. With that, they’re No. 29 in the league with a -8.9 point differential. Dallas is also No. 28 in both overall field-goal and three-point field-goal percentage. The Mavs are 2-12 SU during this span.
- Sacramento is 4-9 SU since the all-star break but has the league’s No. 15 point differential. During this span, Sacramento is No. 6 in fewest turnovers and No. 5 in steals. Dallas is No. 28 in steals, so expect the Kings to hold on to the ball.
- With their ability to hold on to the ball in this game, the Kings should get plenty of looks with their 106.5 possessions per game since the break (second since the all-star break). They are getting points on 53.4 percent of their possessions in their last three outings.
- Sacramento is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs Dallas but the Mavericks won both games played at Golden 1 Center last season.
My Best Bet for Mavericks vs Kings
Kings -8.5
I’m on the side of the Sacramento Kings tonight. I’ll be honest when I say that I’d be a lot more comfortable with this line at 5.5 or 6.5 but with Dallas’ track record here in the second half, I’m confident that a healthy Sacramento lineup can put the hammer down.
The Kings have some making up to do for a late collapse vs Brooklyn in their last game, so I’d expect a fast start, making the first-half spread of -4.5 an interesting option as well.
