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There were only four instances last season in which Denver was an underdog of four or more points, going 3-1 SU while successfully covering the spread all four times. One of those instances came during the playoffs on May 12 in Game 4 in a 115-107 win to even its series with Minnesota at 2-2. Even across four games during the regular season, the series was split right down the middle with each team winning once at home and once on the road, so as far as matchups go, this one is as even as it gets.
The Nuggets' offense is actually far more prolific on the road than at home thus far, averaging 124.3 points per 100 possessions away compared to just 97.3 in the Mile High City. They should keep the score close on Friday for the spread, but Minnesota is rightfully favored at home and should be taken on the moneyline. Since this is so much of a coin flip, this logic at least covers you on both grounds.
Again, this game isn't making it easy for bettors to zone in on trends, because in the 11 times Denver and Minnesota took the floor against each other last season, their OVER/UNDER record was 5-6. Even in a short window this season, both teams have split their OVER/UNDER marks at 2-2 each.
Let's take the UNDER here since the Nuggets' offense only started clicking against bottom-tiered defenses, and the Timberwolves are anything but.
A Nikola Jokic scoring prop at -104 odds is music to my ears. The three-time Most Valuable Player currently ranks first in the Association in scoring at 31.3 points per game, and has toppled 27.5 points in three-straight games, two of which resulted in 40 or more points.
Even against Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert last season, Jokic managed to drop 34 or more points in three of the last four outings in the postseason, while also scoring 32 or more points in three of the four games during the regular season.
Friday, November 1 Fri Nov 1
Player Props
Player Props
- Russell Westbrook(DEN) POS: PGPropPointsProjection9.9
- DeAndre Jordan(DEN) POS: CPropPointsProjection0.44
- Aaron Gordon(DEN) POS: PFPropPointsProjection13.71
- Nikola Jokic(DEN) POS: CPropPointsProjection26.98
- Jamal Murray(DEN) POS: PGPropPointsProjection20.35
- Dario Saric(DEN) POS: PFPropPointsProjection2.39
Edge Finder
106.00 | Points Scored | 110.67 |
---|---|---|
41.49 | Field Goal % | 45.28 |
31.91 | Three Point % | 36.72 |
79.41 | Free Throw % | 78.57 |
48.67 | Total Rebounds | 43.33 |
Head To Head
DEN | Stat Type | MIN |
---|---|---|
5-5 | Record | 5-5 |
4-6 | ATS | 6-4 |
5-5 | O/U | 5-5 |
101.20 | Points Scored | 104.90 |
50.40 | Half Time Score | 50.10 |
46.33% | Field Goal Percentage | 47.77% |
41.90 | Rebounds | 41.10 |
106/287 | 3 Point Shots | 112/314 |
6.30 | Steals | 7.50 |
Team Records
DEN | Record | MIN |
---|---|---|
2-2 | All | 2-2 |
0-2 | Home | 1-1 |
2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
2-2 | As Fav | 2-2 |
0-0 | As Dog | 0-0 |
0-4 | ATS | 1-3 |
0-2 | ATS Home | 0-2 |
0-2 | ATS Away | 1-1 |
2-2 | O/U | 2-2 |
0-2 | O/U Home | 1-1 |
2-0 | O/U Away | 1-1 |
Trends
- Denver are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games.
- Denver are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
- Denver are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against Minnesota.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games when playing on the road against Minnesota.
- Denver are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
- Denver are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November.
- Denver are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games played on a Friday.
Injuries
Name | Position | Inj Desc |
---|---|---|
Aaron Gordon | PF | Is probable Friday vs Minnesota, Knee |
Vlatko Cancar | SF | Is probable Friday vs Minnesota, Ankle |
DaRon Holmes II | PF | Is out for season, Achilles |
Last 10 Games
Date | Opp | Score | SU | Line | Total | ATS | FG% | FT% | 3PTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29, 2024 | BKN | 144-139 | W | -5.5 | 218.50 | L/O | 51.69 | 82.98 | 13 |
Oct 28, 2024 | TOR | 127-125 | W | -8.5 | 223.50 | L/O | 48.96 | 80.00 | 9 |
Oct 26, 2024 | LAC | 104-109 | L | -7.5 | 218 | L/U | 40.23 | 83.33 | 14 |
Oct 24, 2024 | OKC | 87-102 | L | -2 | 228.50 | L/U | 35.35 | 71.43 | 7 |
May 19, 2024 | MIN | 90-98 | L | -4.5 | 201 | L/U | 40.96 | 87.50 | 8 |
May 16, 2024 | MIN | 70-115 | L | +2.5 | 205.50 | L/U | 30.23 | 78.57 | 7 |
May 14, 2024 | MIN | 112-97 | W | -4.5 | 204.50 | W/O | 55.00 | 83.33 | 9 |
May 12, 2024 | MIN | 115-107 | W | +4 | 205.50 | W/O | 56.96 | 80.00 | 13 |
May 10, 2024 | MIN | 117-90 | W | +3.5 | 205.50 | W/O | 53.75 | 85.00 | 14 |
May 6, 2024 | MIN | 80-106 | L | -7.5 | 209.50 | L/U | 34.94 | 72.22 | 9 |