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Spurs Have Been Very Profitable as Home Faves

The San Antonio Spurs fell short in Game 2 vs the Denver Nuggets but now they get to return to the friendly confines of the AT&T Center for the next two games of their first-round series. The Spurs were one of the best bets at home at 32-9 SU and 24-17 ATS this season with their efficient shooting and beat this Nuggets team both times when it came for a visit.

The Spurs opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 212 (since moved to 210.5).

Nuggets vs Spurs Game Center

STANDOUT STATS

  • Coming into this series, the Spurs were the best three-point shooting team in the NBA (39.2 percent) and second-best shooting team from the field (47.8 percent) but they were stifled from behind the arc in Game 2. The Spurs only shot 27.8 percent from three-point range in the second game after shooting over 45 percent in Game 1.
  • Although the Spurs have been up and down on the road, they were lights-out at home during the regular season. San Antonio was 32-9 SU and 24-7 ATS and in 20 games as a favorite of 4 points or less at AT&T Center, the Spurs were 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS. In two home games vs the Nuggets during the season, they won both, but they failed to cover when they hosted Denver on March 4.
  • The Nuggets were one of the best home teams in the NBA this season but on the road was a different story. They’re one of three playoff teams that had a negative point differential in road games this season (-3.4). Their defensive splits for points allowed per game and field-goal percentage were similar for both home and on the road but it’s their offense that drops off. They scored three fewer points per road game compared to home while ranking 28th in field-goal percentage and 18th in three-point percentage.
  • The Nuggets offense was a tale of two games thus far in the series. In Game 1, they shot 6-for-28 from behind the arc (28 percent) and only managed 96 points. But in Game 2, they came alive in the fourth quarter for 39 points and shot 10-for-24 from three-point range. They also killed the Spurs on the fast break, outscoring them 21-6 in that phase. 
  • A lot of trends coming into this matchup support the game falling short of the total. The UNDER has hit in seven of the Spurs’ last nine games (avg. combined score: 213.1) with two of those games being played at the Pepsi Center. The UNDER has also hit in seven of the Spurs’ last nine road games. The UNDER has also hit in five of the last six games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 205.2).

My Best Bet for Nuggets vs Spurs

Spurs -3.5

I’ve been very bullish on the Spurs to win this series and have been riding them with spread bets at home for most of the second half of the season.

San Antonio is so balanced and well-coached that I find it hard to envision the Nuggets keeping this game within 10 points. The Spurs are so dominant at home that they went 17-9 ATS in 26 home games vs the Western Conference and I expect them to correct the issues from Game 2 and shoot over 40 percent from three-point range again.

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