Once the Detroit Pistons announced Blake Griffin was out for their series with the Milwaukee Bucks, most bettors are projecting this series to be a quick exit for Detroit and Game 1 was a perfect indicator. The Pistons got beat by 35 and were held to 86 points while shooting an ugly 38 percent from the field. That’s why they are in deep trouble for Game 2 vs the Bucks as they lost all four games against the division rival with Griffin and were 15-26 SU in 41 road games this season.
As a result, the Bucks opened as 15-point favorites with a total of 213.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Bucks lead the NBA in scoring since the all-star break while ranking 10th in both field-goal and three-point percentage. When playing at home since the break, they’ve gone 16-6 SU and have a +8.1 point differential. They have been dominant at home for the entire season and in Game 1 that dominance was demonstrated in a 35-point win when most of their starters only played 23 to 25 minutes.
- Since the all-star break, the Bucks defense has limited teams to 113 points per game while ranking fourth in opponent field-goal percentage. However, they’ve gotten in trouble defending the three-point line as they’re allowing opponents to shoot 36.7 attempts from behind the arc (ranked 28th) and hit 36 percent of those shots.
- The Bucks defense shouldn’t be too taxed when facing the Pistons tonight as Detroit will be without Blake Griffin for the first round. Without Griffin, the Pistons managed only 86 points and had just two players score in double figures. The Pistons have not fared well this season when Griffin was out of the lineup, going 2-5 SU and ATS in seven games with the two wins coming against the Blazers and Knicks. But when they lost, they got stomped as they had an average loss margin of 11.2 points per game.
- Milwaukee swept the four-game series vs the Pistons this season while covering the spread in three of the games and had an average win margin of 14.7 points per game. The Bucks at home this season averaged 119.9 points per game while owning a +12.1 point differential and shooting a blistering 48.4 percent from the field.
- While the Bucks have been a scoring machine at home, the OVER could be in trouble for tonight’s game because the Pistons offense might be lucky to top 90 points. The Pistons scored 86 in Game 1 and were already a bottom-five team in points scored per road game (105.4). Take Blake Griffin and his 24.5 points per game out of the equation and the UNDER looks very enticing. The UNDER has hit in four of the Pistons’ last five games with an average combined score of 204.8 and when Griffin sits, the Pistons only average 102.4 points per game.
My Best Bet for Pistons vs Bucks
UNDER 213
I was very close to taking the Bucks -15 but I have a sneaky suspicion that the Pistons will try to muck this game up and limit possessions since their offense has been so terrible. The Pistons know that without Blake Griffin, it’s only a matter of time before their year is over so they need to make this a slow-paced game and try to limit turnovers and fast-break opportunities.
The Pistons shot 8-for-27 from behind the arc in Game 1 and one of the Bucks’ few weaknesses is limiting opponents’ deep shots. I think the Bucks will win this game handily and I may end up doubling down on Milwaukee to cover the spread too.
