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The Golden State Warriors (68-35 SU, 53-46-4 ATS) visit the Boston Celtics (65-40, 57-46-2) at TD Garden on Thursday with a chance to win the NBA Finals. Can Golden State win its fourth championship since 2015 or will Boston force a Game 7? Find out in our Warriors vs Celtics prediction. 

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Warriors vs Celtics Odds & Analysis

Opening Odds 

The Celtics opened as a 2.5-point home favorite for Game 6 with the total set at 212.5 points. The UNDER is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings between the two teams at TD Garden while Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games – a trend that could benefit the home team in our Warriors vs Celtics prediction.
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Wiggins Steps Up As Warriors Take Series Lead

Golden State became the first team to win two consecutive games in the series, picking up a 104-94 victory in Game 5. After a 43-point performance in Game 4, Steph Curry had a rare off-night with just 16 points on 0-for-9 shooting from three-point range, but Andrew Wiggins stepped up with one of the biggest performances of his career, contributing 26 points and 13 rebounds to help the Warriors claim their first lead of the NBA Finals.

The Warriors have relied on second-half rallies in most of their games against the Celtics, but they got out to a 27-16 lead in the first quarter this time. Boston pushed back in the third, outscoring the hosts 35-24, but Golden State took control in the final frame to put the contest out of reach. 

Otto Porter Jr. (foot) and Andre Iguodala (knee) are probable for Game 6.

Celtics Struggle To Manage The Ball In Game 5 Loss

The Celtics lost consecutive contests for the first time this postseason and are now on the brink of elimination in the NBA Finals. Jayson Tatum led the team with 27 points while adding 10 boards, and Marcus Smart had 20 points. 

Boston struggled to control the ball and generate shots in Game 5 as Golden State held an 88-75 edge in shots from the field. Tatum (10-for-20), Jaylen Brown (5-for-18) and Smart (7-for-15) took over 70 percent of the team’s shots, though the trio weren’t as dominant as they have been at other points in these playoffs.

The Celtics also turned the ball over 18 times in the game, compared to just six turnovers for the Warriors – something they’ll have to improve upon to stay alive.

Robert Williams (knee) is probable for Thursday’s matchup.

Warriors vs Celtics Pick & Insights

Warriors: Keys To Cover

While it was great to see a secondary option like Wiggins step up, the Warriors likely won’t be able to rely on him to carry the load again. Curry has been dominant in this series and will need to return to form for the Warriors to close the series out in Game 6. Golden State’s defense has also been key, holding Boston to under 100 points in all three wins – if that happens again, the Warriors should win.

Celtics: Keys To Cover

Boston has been an extremely resilient team this year – particularly in the postseason – and will need to demonstrate that more than ever on Thursday. Tatum has been doing all he can in the Finals, scoring 26 points per game over the last four contests, but Boston will need more from Smart and Al Horford in particular. They are averaging just 16 and 7.5 points, respectively, in that span.

NBA Computer Pick: Warriors +4

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Shark Bites
  • Golden State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
  • The UNDER is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings.
  • Boston is 13-7 SU in its last 20 home games.