Looking past an opponent in the NBA playoffs is common but it can sometimes make the favorite look foolish as shown in the first-round series between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers. The Warriors have been heavy favorites in each of the five games of this series but have shown complacency in spots to allow the Clippers to be only down three games to two.
The Clip Show will face another large spread as it opened at +9.5, which was the closing spread in both games played at Staples Center in this series.
Warriors vs Clippers Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- The Warriors lead the NBA playoffs in points per game at 123.6. They are also second in both field-goal percentage (49.7) and three-point percentage (41.1). In two games at Staples Center in this series, they’ve shot 51 percent from the floor while hitting 27 shots from behind the arc.
- The Clippers continue to show no fear vs the Warriors and have made this a series by winning Games 2 and 5. In those games, the Clippers outscored the Warriors 104-80 in the paint while shooting over 50 percent from the floor. Lou Williams led the Clippers in scoring in both of those games (33 and 35 points).
- In Game 5, the Clippers came out firing and never let up, compared to Game 2 when they overcame a 31-point deficit. The Clippers were able to not only cover the full game spread, they covered the first-quarter (+5.5) and first-half (+8.5) spreads as well.
- With the Warriors at -10, this is the largest spread the Clippers have faced all season as a home underdog. In 11 games in that spot this year, the Clippers were 3-8 SU and ATS. The Clippers split their two games at home vs the Warriors and lost 112-94 in January.
- Rebounding has been a key factor in this series with the Warriors holding a +8.2 rebounding advantage while limiting the Clippers to only 8.8 offensive boards per game. The Clippers are also getting a lot of their shots blocked (7.2), which is second-worst among all playoff teams.
- The OVER has hit in four of the Clippers’ last five home games while the OVER has also hit in 12 of the last 16 games in this matchup. When the series played two games at Staples Center, the OVER hit once but mainly because the Warriors scored 132 points in that game. The Clippers only scored 105 in both Game 3 and Game 4.
My Best Bet for Warriors vs Clippers
Warriors -6.5 First Half
I’m a little uneasy about taking the Warriors for the full game because a double-digit spread in a playoff game is playing with fire so I’ll settle on the -6.5 because outside of Game 5, the Warriors have had a lead of eight points or more in each first half. In Game 3, the Warriors scored 73 first-half points and led by 21 so I’m banking on Golden State understanding the sense of urgency and putting this team away early.
