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NBA Finals Betting: Heat vs. Mavericks

After tying the series 2-2 with a win in Game 4 the Dallas Mavericks can take their first series lead in the NBA Finals tonight with a win over the Miami Heat in Game 5.

Dallas won Game 4 86-83 as a 3-point home favorite. Dirk Nowitzki scored 21 points and added 11 rebounds to lead the Mavericks while battling the flu. Dwyane Wade netted a game-high 32 points for Miami in the loss.

View Miami vs Dallas Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
Sportsbooks had the Mavericks installed as 2.5-point favorites in this particular matchup. The over-under number was listed by most sportsbooks at 186.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
This game pits the Mavericks, currently No. 6 in the Odds Shark NBA Power Rankings, against the Heat, who rate No. 3 in the most recent survey. Meanwhile, math and computer handicapping models run on this game predict a 106-102 victory for the Heat.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits Dallas's No. 11-ranked offense, averaging 100.2 PPG, against a Heat defense that ranks No. 6 at 94.6 PPG. The Mavericks field goal percentage has averaged 47.5% so far, less than the Heat shooters have achieved on the year, 48.1% per game.

Defensively, the Heat feature the league's No. 3-rated defense on the road, allowing 95.2 points per game. Dallas, meanwhile, comes in at No. 13 in the league in scoring at home.

Last time out for Miami, they were an 86-83 loser as they battled the Mavericks on the road. The Heat earned a push in the match as a 3-point underdog, while 169 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. Miami got 32 points from Dwyane Wade en route to an 86-83 loss at the hands of Miami on Tuesday at American Airlines Center.

Miami Heat Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
Before playing Dallas are 7-3
After playing Dallas are 6-4
After a loss are 8-2

Dallas Mavericks Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 3-7
Before playing Miami are 8-2
After playing Miami are 7-3
After a win are 7-3

A few Heat at Mavericks trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
Miami is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
Dallas is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Miami
Dallas is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Dallas is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

Next up:
Miami home to Dallas, Sunday, June 12
Dallas at Miami, Sunday, June 12