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Rockets Big Road Faves In Quest To Avenge Christmas Day Loss

Rockets vs Warriors Betting Odds February 20, 2020

The Rockets suffered a surprising loss at Golden State on Christmas Day. Both Houston’s roster and play style have changed since then, but considering the Warriors’ roster has become even more depleted, another upset — and a high-scoring game — seems unlikely. 

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

Opening Odds Analysis

The Warriors may have won six of the last nine meetings against Houston, including the most recent matchup at Chase Center, but they are the worst team in the NBA with a bare-bones roster.

Houston isn’t playing its A game right now but is still far more talented and deserving of opening as a 9.5-point favorite. Both teams have been playing more low-scoring games recently, but the Warriors have one of the league’s worst defenses, while the Rockets still have James Harden and Russell Westbrook, so the total opened at a modest 232.5 points.

Houston News & Notes

Despite being the league’s second-highest scoring club, the Rockets have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last six games. It seems counterintuitive considering the Rockets have gone to a small-ball lineup following the trade deadline, as they have averaged about 110 points per game.

Houston has only further committed to its small roster, recently filling its final two open roster spots by signing veteran forwards DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Green —  who are six-foot-six and six-foot-eight — so expect more of the same going forward. 

Bettors expecting to see the shootouts we’ve become accustomed to in classic Houston-Golden State matchups will also be disappointed, as the rivalry has recently seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five meetings at Golden State — including a 116-104 Warriors home win on Christmas Day.

Golden State News & Notes

While the centerpiece of Golden State’s trade deadline moves, former first overall pick Andrew Wiggins, has played well in his first three games with the Warriors, the team continues to lose lots of games.

Wiggins is averaging 23 points and four assists per game but is doing so while taking 5.5 fewer shots per contest, thanks to 57.5 percent shooting from the floor. The Warriors have lost all three games, however, as the team (which boasts the NBA’s fifth-worst offense and seventh-worst defense) has lost 17 of its last 20 games overall and nine of the last 10 at home and sits dead last in the NBA with a 12-43 record. 

The Warriors have been able to hang around in games lately, however, as they are 4-2 ATS over their last six contests. While they’re 2-1 SU and ATS in their last three against Houston, including the aforementioned Christmas Day game, they have only covered the spread in four of their last 12 overall against the Rockets.

Betting Pick: UNDER 232.5

The Rockets have been playing to the UNDER with this small-ball lineup, while the Warriors simply struggle to score — I’ll bank on a low-scoring game Thursday.

Shark Bites
  • Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 away games.
  • Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games vs the West.
  • Golden State is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games.