It may not be a proper referendum on who the MVP of the NBA is this season but tonight’s game between the Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks could go a long way in settling that debate. Giannis Antetokounmpo has led his team to a league-best 55-19 SU record in 74 games while averaging 27.4 points per game and James Harden leads the NBA in scoring and has carried his team to third in the Western Conference.
The Bucks opened as 4-point favorites with a total of 226.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Rockets are a league-best 14-3 SU in 17 games since the all-star break while going 8-6-1 ATS in those games. In that span, they have a +7.8 point differential while hitting a league-best 16.2 threes per game on 44.3 attempts (also ranked first).
- The Rockets lost their first game after the all-star break to the Lakers. Since then, they’ve only lost two games – to the Warriors and Grizzlies, by a combined three points.
- The Bucks have been beasts at home this season at 30-6 SU and 22-13-1 ATS but they will be short-handed tonight with Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic and Tony Snell out. Since Brogdon got hurt, the Bucks have given up an average of 38.4 three-point attempts per game (ranked 28th).
- Since the all-star break, the Bucks are second in points scored per game (119.6), while ranking in the top five in field goals and three-pointers made per game. They also rank first in rebounding, second in blocks and seventh in turnovers.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Rockets’ last six games on the road (avg. combined score: 214.67) while the total has also gone UNDER in three of the Bucks’ last four games (avg. combined score: 215.0).
My Best Bet for Rockets vs Bucks
Rockets Moneyline
I can understand why bettors will take the Rockets +4 because it’s still a decent spread to get Houston at to keep the game close. However, over the last 30 days, underdogs of 4 points or less are 43-39 SU and 47-34-1 ATS in 82 games and you’d be up significant profit if you just backed every dog in that spot. That being said, not every underdog is created equal and I would caution bettors to still dive into the numbers to ensure you’re comfortable taking the underdog and the Rockets fit that description to a tee.
They’re on an unreal run since the all-star break and are starting to resemble the squad that went to the Western Conference final last year. The Bucks are also missing some key contributors like Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic and Tony Snell, which could be detrimental to the team’s perimeter defense. I think when you can get a quality team like the Rockets as an underdog, you almost have to take it.
