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How I've Nailed the 2016 NBA Finals

LeBron James Cleveland Cavs NBA Finals

I admit I can be wrong at times and I guarantee you I will be wrong again, but this NBA Finals is not one of those times. This is one of those times where I’ve been nailing it with my analysis through some very tricky betting situations and I really hope you’re reading and watching.

Understanding the line and why sports books set it the way they do is such an important part of sports betting.

Throughout these NBA Finals I’ve been zeroing in on that, talking about it in my columns, videos and on Twitter. If you’ve been following along, you are probably looking at a healthy NBA Finals bankroll. At worst, I hope I’ve helped you understand the line a little better.

I’m not going to promise you profitable picks every day and for that reason your moves have to be your own. The goal here is to ultimately help the recreational sports bettor make more confident, informed betting decisions whether you win or lose. If you do lose, hopefully the things I talk about help you determine where you went wrong and you can learn from it.

And everybody loses in sports betting. It’s inevitable.

I’ve learned from 15 years of working in the sports betting world and talking to dozens of oddsmakers from Las Vegas to the offshore scene to overseas. I’ve talked to professional sports bettors and recreational ones and have learned a ton from both. And I’ve extensively bet on just about every major sport there is – and a lot of less mainstream ones - in just about every way imaginable.

So I’m coming to you from a mix of experience and knowledge and the reason I still love sports betting is that I’m still learning every day. You may have noticed that both sports and the betting world have evolved dramatically in recent years and if you think you’ve learned everything by now, you got me beat bro.

Here’s a quick review of some of the more important items I’ve covered so far and more to come before Game 6 as the series continues:

NBA Finals: A Dream Scenario For Books – Before the series I talked about why the books are so happy it’s a Cavs-Warriors Finals and it’s not just the popularity. This gives you insight on where the action was for series bets and why that matters.

3 OVER/UNDER Stats For The NBA Finals – The title says it all but this gives historical context to the O/U lines for the Finals. I also talk about how this is a recreational bettor’s series and why that’s important in your handicapping of it.

FoxSports’ Outkick The Coverage Game 3 Preview – Ahead of Game 3, I talked with Clay Travis and on Twitter about the public’s surprise that the Cavs’ moved back to favorites after the announcement that Kevin Love was out. I told you how the books had factored his absence into the line from the beginning and how they were happy to take on the public by siding with the Cavs, which is why I liked Cleveland in this game.

Can The Dubs Bounce Back in Game 4? – I explain why I liked the UNDER and why I felt the Warriors were going to be much more prepared for Game 4. I talked about the difference in the mentality of sportsbooks between Game 3 and Game 4 when setting this line.

What’s Draymond Worth To The Spread? – Ahead of Game 5, sportsbooks only appeared to value the suspension of Draymond Green at 1 point. I was largely on my own here in the Internets when I talked about why he was worth far more than that. The books were caught off guard here by the delayed NBA decision – which doesn’t happen often – which was totally unlike Game 3 where they had baked Kevin Love’s absence into the line already.