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If Curry Is Out, Wait On Golden State

If you like the Golden State Warriors and think Stephen Curry will sit out again for Game 3, you may want to sit back and relax. History says you probably want to wait until tip-off in these situations before taking the Warriors. 

Curry has missed six games over the past two seasons and for every one of those games we saw the Warriors move to much more favorable number from open to close. The line moved at least two points in Golden State bettors’ favor each time and it moved at least four points in four of the six games. 

Here’s a look at the line movement from open to close in all six of those games: 

Line Movement In games When Curry Sits Out L2 Seasons
April 18, 2016Home vs. HoustonWarriors -12.5 to -8.5(W 115-106)
March 1, 2016Home vs. AtlantaWarriors -11.5 to -5.5(W 109-105) 
Dec. 31, 2015at DallasWarriors +1.5 to +3.5(L 114-91) 
Dec. 30, 2015at HoustonWarriors -8.5 to -3.5(W 114-110)
March 13, 2015at DenverWarriors -9 to -2.5(L 114-103)
Feb. 22, 2015at IndianaWarriors -7 to -4(L 104-98) 

Waiting until the last moment was vital in Game 2 for Warriors bettors, who covered the spread by a measly half-point in the win over the Rockets. Amazingly, it was the same situation back on December 30 this season when the Warriors also squeaked out a half-point cover over the Rockets on the closing line with Curry sitting out.  

It’s not sounding much like Curry will play in Game 3 if you’re taking his word for it — and the consensus seems to be the Warriors don’t need him to beat the Rockets anyway. 

“Based on how I feel right now, I probably couldn’t play,” Curry said after Wednesday’s practice. 

The Warriors opened as 6-point favorites for Thursday’s Game 3 in Houston but bettors had already bet that number down to -5 at several shops by Thursday morning. 

Overall, Golden State is 3-3 and 2-4 against the spread over the past two seasons when Curry isn’t in the lineup.