While no one on Earth will debate who is the best team in the NBA, if aliens invaded and saw basketball for the first time, they would not pick the Golden State Warriors based on how they’ve played in the last month. The Warriors are 7-6 SU in 13 games since the all-star break and have been an awful spread bet at home this season at 12-21-1 in 34 games. They’ll face a Pacers squad that is wrapping up a four-game road trip and has lost seven of the last eight away from the Hickory State.
The Warriors opened as 13-point favorites (since moved to -11) with a total of 220.
Pacers vs Warriors Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- The Warriors have been an awful spread bet this season at 29-40-1 ATS in 70 games, including 12-21-1 ATS in 34 home games. When you isolate that spread record to just the last 20 games at Oracle Arena, the Dubs are 4-15-1.
- Since the all-star break, the Warriors are 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS in 13 games. In those outings, they rank in the top 10 in both opposition field-goal and three-point percentage but they are allowing opponents to shoot 34.5 attempts from behind the arc while ranking 28th in turnovers per game (15.2).
- The Warriors routinely have been a double-digit favorite in home games as they’ve been in that spot 17 times this season. In those games, the Warriors are 15-2 SU but only 8-9 ATS and have failed to cover the last two times in that spot vs the Rockets and Suns. They have also failed to cover the spread in their last five games overall as double-digit chalk.
- The Pacers are one of the best defenses in the NBA. They only allow 104.1 points per game (rated first) but that average goes up to 107.9 in road games. The Pacers are 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight away games.
- The Pacers on the road allow opposing teams to shoot 46.9 percent from the field (rated 19th) compared to 43.1 percent at home, which is rated first. Opponents also shoot 37.6 percent from behind the arc (rated 27th) in Pacers road games compared to 33.5 percent in their home games (rated third).
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Pacers’ last eight games (avg. combined score: 207.1) and in five of their last six on the road (avg. combined score: 205.4). The UNDER has also hit in the Warriors’ last nine games (avg. combined score: 217.1) but five of those games went OVER 220 points.
My Best Bet for Pacers vs Warriors
OVER 220
I might be taking a risk here given how poor the Pacers’ offense has been in road games lately and all the UNDER trends surrounding this game but I think this total is too low. There have only been seven times all season that a Warriors game has had a closing total of 220 or less and the OVER hit in five of those games.
I still think the Warriors are a little too loose with their defense lately and I think both teams will give up over 100 points before the game is over. Considering how the Warriors rely on the three-point shot and how many attempts a game they give up from behind the arc, I’d rather roll the dice on an OVER than expect either of these teams to cover the spread.
