All signs are pointing toward Luka Doncic making his highly-anticipated debut for the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday night at Crypto.com Arena against the visiting Utah Jazz. For a talent at the level of the five-time NBA All-Star looking to impress in his new surroundings, bettors will undoubtedly gravitate to Doncic's player props hoping for huge numbers in his first appearance donning purple and gold.
The 25-year-old is listed as questionable for Monday's matchup after being out of action with a left calf strain since Christmas Day as a member of the Dallas Mavericks. While it's not fully confirmed as of writing, the expectation is that Doncic will be available to compete, especially with national television networks rearranging their schedule to accommodate this game.
Which props should you be checking out ahead of (hopefully) Doncic's first game with the Lakers, and which almost seem too good to be true?
Preview: Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Luka Doncic OVER 7.5 Assists (+102 at FanDuel)
Had he not missed so many games, Doncic's current average of 7.8 assists would still have him ranked eighth amongst his fellow peers across the Association, even with that number being two full dimes lower from what it was a season ago.
While it would be easy to get carried away and want to do too much, too quickly, both the team and Doncic should want to gradually work him back into the mix to not aggravate his tender calf and put him back on the sidelines quicker than he got off it. There's only so much he could have possibly done up to this point as far as building an on-court rapport with his new teammates beyond some five-on-five scrimmages during practices, so what better way to do so than by being a facilitator, drawing defenses in, and getting open looks for those around him in his initial appearance.
The potential presence of LeBron James (questionable with left ankle soreness) could cut into this number, especially since we have yet to see how they'll co-exist while on the floor together. Nevertheless, taking the OVER is a worthwhile gamble at plus money. Even though it was with Dallas, Doncic has already gone OVER this mark twice already this season versus Utah, so take that for what it's worth. In fact, he hasn't registered fewer than 7.5 assists against them since March 7, 2023, which covers the last six meetings.
Luka Doncic UNDER 27.5 Points (-122 at FanDuel)
In conjunction with the rationale behind the assists prop, if Doncic wants to avoid stepping on anyone's toes right out of the gate, focusing more on efficiently running the offense as opposed to forcing his own looks coming off injury should logically result in fewer points. Sure, this is one of those bets that could be looked back on as irresponsible knowing what Doncic is capable of as a scorer, but even oddsmakers at Sportsbook believe the UNDER is the safer option here.
Utah is only 3-14 since Jan. 7 and possesses the worst overall defense by allowing 118.4 points per 100 possessions, so Los Angeles may not need Doncic to tally a ton of minutes in his debut in order to fend off the competition. The Lakers rank seventh in offense by scoring 122.4 points per 100 possessions since the blockbuster trade went through, with the likes of Austin Reaves (29.3 points) and Rui Hachimura (18.3 points) all stepping up to the plate, so there's clearly options beyond what Doncic can provide.
If this were the Mavericks on the other side of the floor, purely out of spite and revenge, an OVER would be a more natural choice. That's still a few weeks away, so use this game as an early gauge for how Doncic will perform under the bright lights of Hollywood and how he looks physically and even emotionally following a whirlwind of events, comments, and broken promises which landed him in Los Angeles in the first place.
Luka Doncic UNDER 3.5 Made 3-Pointers (+100 at FanDuel)
Doncic's 3-point marksmanship was already in question through his 22 appearances with Dallas, because after converting 38.2 percent from behind the arc in 2023-24, his number dropped down nearly three full percentage points to 35.4, although that would still be the second-best mark of his young career.
Say what you will about the Jazz's usually non-existent defense, but for whatever reason, they're at least respectable in defending the 3-point line by allowing opponents to only shoot 35.7 percent, tied for 10th overall. On Oct. 28 when Utah visited the American Airlines Center, Doncic had his worst shooting night from deep of the campaign thus far by converting only one of his nine attempts in 33 minutes of action.
This is more of a "better safe than sorry" type of bet, as the Lakers have an abundance of shooters at their disposal, now even more so after a trade was rescinded with the Charlotte Hornets which brought rookie Dalton Knecht back to the roster. This could end up being more of a conservative line for Doncic, at least for now.
