Our NBA experts Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello are here throughout the playoffs offering up their spread, moneyline, OVER/UNDER, and player prop picks for all of the action.
The Western Conference Finals tips off on Wednesday night with the first postseason battle between stars Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards. Edwards and the Timberwolves are favored in Game 1 at home, but the dynamic duo of Doncic and Kyrie Irving leaves Minnesota little room for error.
Let's dive into all the odds and our NBA Expert Picks of the evening below.
(Related Link) 2024 NBA Playoff Series Prices
NBA Expert Picks Results: Conference Finals
Expert | Record | Units |
---|---|---|
Nick Holz | 2-0 | 1.85 |
David Caraviello | 1-0 | 0.95 |
Christopher Walder | 1-1 | -0.12 |
Jump To Picks
- Nick's Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Spread
- Chris' Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline
- David's Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Spread
- Nick's Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Naz Reid Prop
- Chris' Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Derrick Jones Jr. Prop
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 Preview & Picks
Matchup Page: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
Same-Game Parlay: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1
Team | Spread | Money | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Dallas Mavericks | +4 (-108) | +148 | O 207.5 (-110) |
Minnesota Timberwolves | -4 (-112) | -176 | U 207.5 (-110) |
Nick Holz's Pick: Mavericks vs Timberwolves OVER 207.5 (-110)
As a thrilling Western Conference Finals series tips off tonight, expect the offensive playmakers on both sides to make some noise. While the UNDER has smacked in seven of the last nine Mavericks-Timberwolves meetings, 207 points has been a landmark number for both teams this season.
The Mavericks and their opponents have combined for OVER 207 points in 83 of 93 contests this season (including the playoffs), while the Timberwolves have gone over the 207-point total in 73 of 93 games thus far. With over 70% of bets currently on the UNDER, we're going contrarian with this play.
For all their defensive accolades, both teams boast offensive ratings of 114 points per 100 possessions or more during the NBA playoffs. Moreover, three of the four Mavs-Timberwolves regular season meetings went OVER the 207.5-point total. Don't fall into the UNDERs trend trap, we watch NBA basketball to see the ball go in the hoop. With Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards and KAT on the floor, the OVER is a great bet tonight.
Christopher Walder's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ML (+148)
Betting moneyline or spread for Game 1 in what should be a tight, back-and-forth matchup is extremely risky, as the safer move would be to wait it out and gauge how both the Timberwolves and Mavericks will fair with fresh opposition and infinitely more pressure. Yet here we are, betting Dallas on the road to take the series opener, although it's not without reason.
The Mavericks are 4-1 SU in their last five postseason road games, having just taken Games 2 and 5 at the Paycom Center against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round by nine points or more each time. They were also underdogs of at least 4.5 points in each of those outings, as well.
Minnesota did go 1-2 SU when hosting Denver in the Western Conference semifinals, with the one outlier being that absurd 115-70 whooping on May 16 which is such an historical anomaly. I'll take the more experienced Dallas to catch the confident Timberwolves off guard in Game 1 and pull off the slight upset to really get the competitive juices flowing in this series.
David Caraviello's Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves ATS -4 (-112)
It’s the Western Conference final no one saw coming, with the Timberwolves a -170 favorite to win the series and advance to the NBA Finals. The matchup presents an interesting clash of styles, with guard-oriented Dallas trying to get to the rim, and interior-heavy Minnesota built to protect it.
The T-Wolves took three of four games from Dallas in the regular season and have covered in eight of their 11 playoff games so far, making them the natural choice to win and beat the spread in Game 1 of this West final at home Wednesday night.
Nick Holz's Pick: Naz Reid OVER 9.5 Points (-125)
Naz Reid has seven or eight six-minute stretches a year where he looks like a certified All-NBA player. The newly crowned NBA 6th Man of the Year has been outstanding this season, averaging 13.5 points per game, including 47.7% from the field and 41.4% from three.
MAKE WAY FOR NAZ REID. pic.twitter.com/r9gMXj1qCP
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) May 15, 2024
Even more impressively, he put up 15.8 points per game on 53% shooting, and 56% (!) from deep against Dallas in four contests this season. Reid's ability to stretch the floor and pull the Mavericks bigs out of the paint will be huge as this series rolls along. He'll be a crucial X-factor for Minnesota as Jason Kidd's defense focuses on slowing down Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns. Bet on Reid to get into double-digit scoring with ease in Game 1.
Christopher Walder's Pick: Derrick Jones Jr. OVER 12.5 PTS + REB (-108)
I included this as a leg in my same-game parlay for Game 1 because I'm confident it's going to hit. Derrick Jones Jr's role in the Mavericks' offense has continued to evolve over time, and his length and athleticism will be an invaluable commodity for head coach Jason Kidd defensively in this series with Minnesota as it was versus the Thunder.
His minutes are on the rise, and not only did he nail the combined OVER of 12.5 points and rebounds in his last three appearances during the second round, Jones Jr. blew the number out of the water with at least 20 in each game. Here's hoping that will carry over against the Timberwolves with his role expanding even further.