Kyrie Irving

NBA Playoffs 2024 Expert Picks & Preview: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Game 5

Our NBA experts Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello are here throughout the playoffs offering up their spread, moneyline, OVER/UNDER, and player prop picks for all of the action.

The Dallas Mavericks get another crack at booking their ticket to the 2024 Finals on Thursday night when they visit the Target Center for Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are looking to become the first team to ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series.

Let's take a closer look at all of our expert picks for this matchup.

(Related Link) 2024 NBA Playoff Series Prices

NBA Expert Picks Results: Conference Finals

ExpertRecordUnits
Nick Holz8-34.11
David Caraviello4-4-0.22
Christopher Walder5-11-5.85

Jump To Picks

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Preview & Picks

Matchup Page: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET

Same-Game Parlay: Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5

TeamSpreadMoneyTotal
Dallas Mavericks+4.5 (-105)+155O 209.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves-4.5 (-115)-190U 209.5 (-110)

Christopher Walder's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS +4.5 (-105)

Dallas held a 3-0 series lead before dropping Game 4 on Tuesday night, and dating back to 2003 when a squad was up 3-0 and lost Game 4, that team is 22-8 SU in Game 5 but just 13-16-1 against the spread, with five failed covers in the last six attempts.

There's less of a base to work with when Game 5 is on the road for said team with a 2-2 record SU and ATS. The 4.5-point spread is the second-largest of the series thus far, with three of the four outings being separated by five or fewer points, including a one-point margin of victory for the Mavericks in Game 2.

We've already seen Dallas prevail twice on the road in Minnesota with six wins across the entire postseason. The Timberwolves actually have a losing record SU on their home floor during the playoffs at 3-4, and with a little bit of a buffer to cover on Thursday in games which have consistently come down to the final few possessions, there's enough upside here to like the Mavericks' chances.

Christopher Walder's Pick: OVER/UNDER 209.5 Total Points (-110)

I took the OVER for Game 4, but as fate would dictate, it was the first of the entire Western Conference finals to go UNDER, with the two teams combining to score 205 total points when oddsmakers had the number at 209.5.

In a perfect world, Mavericks rookie Dereck Lively II would be suiting up on Thursday because Dallas' offense is far more diverse and effective with him working as a big man around the rim with some agility and length. His status is unclear as of Wednesday morning, though.

Regardless, both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving were a combined 13-of-39 shooting the rock in Game 4 and can only improve from there. If the superstar backcourt drills a few more shots each, then we're not even dreading the UNDER. Their efficiency should improve, and the OVER should connect. 

Nick Holz's Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5 (-115)

Dallas looked a little flat in Game 4, and the absence of Dereck Lively II reared its head as the game progressed.

Lively has thrived as both a roll threat and paint defender in this series, and the Mavericks sorely missed his presence on the floor. He's questionable for tonight's game, so keep an eye on his status as you place your bets.

Regardless of Lively's status, I love the Timberwolves to push the Western Conference Finals to a sixth game. The better seed has dominated Game 5 of late, going 13-4 SU and ATS in the last 10 postseasons. On top of that, home favorites are on a massive run in Game 5, going 14-3 SU and ATS. Karl-Anthony Towns looked reborn in Game 4, and he'll have to put in another strong showing to keep his team alive. It's desperation do-or-die basketball for Minnesota from here on out. Bet on the Timberwolves to cover the spread in Game 5. 

David Caraviello's Pick: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 (-105)

So, was Minnesota’s five-point road victory in Game 4 a sign that the Timberwolves have once again become the defensive, aggressive squad that unseated the reigning champion Nuggets? We’re not ready to go that far. Dallas remains an excellent spread play in these playoffs, covering the number in four of its last six, and winning outright in six of its last seven away games. Luka Doncic is still the best player in this series, and that’s a somewhat hefty point spread for a Mavericks team that plays its best away from home.

Back to Top