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Rockets are a Risky Play as Favorites

James Harden Chris Bosh

When sportsbooks tab the Houston Rockets as favorites, bettors are getting mixed results. Houston, who opened as a 5.5-point chalk for tonight’s clash with the Miami Heat, is a team to be wary of in this spot, as James Harden and company are a measly 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when favored by five points or more.

Shark Bites
  • The Heat are 6-16 SU and 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Southwest Division.
  • The Rockets are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games at home.
  • The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Rockets.

To say the Rockets’ defense has sprung a leak lately would be a massive understatement. In Houston’s prior three matchups, they’ve allowed an average of a whopping 120 points per game. Not great, Bob.

Totals bettors may feel a bit conflicted when handicapping this game, and it’s pretty evident why. Houston (29-21 O/U) is the best OVER team in the NBA, while the Heat (16-31 O/U) rank as the most profitable UNDER play in the Association. The UNDER has paid out in six of Miami’s last eight, with the OVER going a perfect 5-0 in the Rockets’ last five heading into the contest. Oddsmakers opened the total at 203.5.

Heads up, sports bettors - Miami big man Hassan Whiteside is ruled out of the game due to injury, while Houston's Dwight Howard has been suspended and will not participate as a result.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Sportsbooks such as TopBet had the Houston Rockets installed as -5-point favorites in this particular NBA matchup. The over-under betting line for the total number of point scored was listed by most sportsbooks, including Bovada, at 204.

Handicapping prediction models run by the computers at Odds Shark pick a 105-104 result in favor of the Heat. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NBA matchups here.

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Houston Rockets currently sport a record of 25-25, and have posted a corresponding betting slate of 20-29-1 ATS. The Miami Heat are 27-21 and 24-23-1 ATS. Betting totals have seen the Rockets post a 29-21 OVER/UNDER record this season, while the Heat have gone 16-32 against the total number of points scored. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Houston vs Miami injuries news.

This game matches up the No. 16 (Houston Rockets) and the No. 21 (Heat) teams in the league, according to our current NBA betting Power Rankings at Odds Shark.

Statistical Matchup

In rebounding, the battle of the boards features Houston's No. 21-rated NBA squad against Miami's No. 22-rated roster. When it comes to long-range shooting, Houston rates No. 2 in the league with 10.88 per game, while their foes tonight rank No. 26 with 6.31 per outing.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Miami earned a 105-87 victory over Atlanta on Sunday, getting 18 points from Chris Bosh at AmericanAirlines Arena.

James Harden chucked in 40 points for Houston on Saturday, but they still came up short in losing 123-122 at Toyota Center.

Betting Trends
  • Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 23 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
  • Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
  • Houston is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Miami at Dallas, Wednesday, February 3rd
Houston at Phoenix, Thursday, February 4th