Heat vs Bucks Betting Odds January 15

The Bucks Have Dropped Six Straight To the Heat

Winning 15 of their last 21 games since the start of December, the Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season but will be facing a squad tonight that has plagued them recently. The Bucks have dropped their last six games vs Miami and haven’t beaten the Heat in over two years. The Heat are leading the Southeast Division at 21-20 SU in 41 games and are starting to come on, winning 10 of their last 14 contests.

The Bucks opened as 8-point favorites with a total of 220.

SHARK BITES
  • The Bucks are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Heat are 5th in the NBA in points allowed per game (105.6).
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last 5 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 186.8).

Heat vs Bucks Game Center

When Bucks Win at Home, They Win Big!

At 19-4 SU in 23 games at Fiserv Forum, the Bucks own the best home record in the NBA and are 15-7-1 against the spread in those contests. Milwaukee has been rolling when getting to play in front of the hometown crowd, averaging 120.5 points per game (ranked first), and has an insane +12.5-point differential that means when the Bucks win, they crush teams.

The Bucks may be 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall but something seems to short-circuit when they face the Heat, as they’ve dropped their last six games in this matchup with an average losing margin of 10.4 points per game. When Milwaukee faced Miami back just before Christmas, the Bucks got walloped in South Beach 94-87. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored only 13 points and in 15 career games vs the Heat, he is only averaging 16.2 points per contest.

The Heat’s Defense Keeps Them In Games

Ranking fifth in points allowed per game and winning 10 of their last 14 games overall, the Miami Heat are just under the radar for the peskiest team in the league. They may only be 21-20 SU but since the start of December they’ve taken down the Bucks, Celtics, Clippers, Rockets and Jazz, all teams with a better record than the Heat this year.

I just detailed how the Heat have owned this matchup lately but did you know they’re also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games? And 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall? And 12-6 ATS in 18 road games for the best ATS road record in the NBA? Well, if you didn’t know, now you do.

I’m likely backing the Heat tonight because of how well they’ve fared in this matchup and the fact they’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 regular-season games when an underdog of 8 points or more. Hassan Whiteside is also expected to play tonight and his presence in the middle will be crucial in stopping a Bucks team that is third in the NBA in points scored in the paint.

Totals Bettors Should Eye The UNDER 

The total opened at 220 (since moved to 219.5) and the UNDER could be a decent angle to take with this one. The UNDER has hit in four of the last five games in this matchup with an average combined score of 186.8 points per game. The UNDER has also been a profitable endeavor when the Bucks take the court as it has hit in 14 of their last 20 games overall.

My Pick Is…

To take the Heat to cover the spread. They’ve got an extra day of rest and have been so good in this matchup that I think the 8.5 points is a nice cushion for a cover bet.

The Bucks are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.home The Heat are 5th in the NBA in points allowed per game (105.6).away The total has gone UNDER in four of the last 5 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 186.8).
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