Bucks Favored Over Heat Despite Injured Giannis

The Milwaukee Bucks (14-9 SU, 10-13 ATS) are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Miami Heat (14-9 SU, 14-9 ATS). The Bucks will look to keep things rolling against the Heat with another win this Saturday night in Milwaukee.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The line on this matchup opened early Saturday morning with Milwaukee going off as a 5.5-point favorite at home. The total for this Eastern Conference showdown is set at 215.5 points. The OVER is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games.

Miami News & Notes

The Heat were going off as 5.5-point underdogs on Friday night on the road against the Indiana Pacers with their leading scorer Jimmy Butler out due to a tailbone injury. Kyle Lowry went 9-for-18 from the floor including a 6-for-13 mark from three-point range for 26 points to help lead Miami to a 113-104 upset win. Duncan Robinson added 24 points and Tyler Herro had 18 in the win.

Butler has been ruled out again for Saturday’s game against Milwaukee. With Bam Adebayo projected to be out 4-6 weeks after having surgery on his injured thumb and Victor Oladipo still out with a knee injury, the Heat’s depth is being put to the test this week with Butler out as well. Miami was 0-2 SU and ATS over its previous two game before Friday night’s victory.

Milwaukee News & Notes

Playing in their second night of a back-to-back and without Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks had their eight-game winning streak snapped on Thursday night in a 97-93 loss to the Toronto Raptors. The defending champs opened the season with a champion’s hangover going 6-8 SU and ATS through their first 14 games but have since turned things around with an 8-1 SU and 4-5 ATS record over their last nine games.

Antetokounmpo has been his usual dominant self this season averaging 27.6 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. The Bucks will likely be without their star big man against Miami as Antetokounmpo has been downgraded to doubtful to play in this one. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton combined for 48 points in Antetokounmpo’s absence against the Raptors.

How Miami Will Cover

Miami went 47.1% (16-for-34) from three-point range in their upset win against the Pacers. Another sharp shooting night from Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson could help offset the team’s key inuries and keep ths game close enough to win or cover.

How Milwaukee Will Cover

The Bucks should be the fresher team on Saturday as Miami just played last night and had to travel from Indiana to Milwaukee after the game. The extra energy and home court advantage could drive the Bucks to a big win and cover even without Antetokounmpo in the lineup.

Computer Pick: Bucks -6.5

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