Reeling Nuggets Home Favorites Over Giannis-less Bucks

Milwaukee has suffered back-to-back losses for the first time all season, and will try to avoid losing three in a row. With Giannis Antetokounmpo out, is betting on Denver’s 20th-ranked offense and the UNDER a smart play … or backing the Nuggets as slight home favorites?

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Despite their recent poor play, the Nuggets are still the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and have won seven of their last nine home games. In facing a Milwaukee team that does not have its superstar in the lineup, the Nuggets are still understandably the favorites, although they opened with just a 2-point spread.

Milwaukee News & Notes

The Bucks announced that superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo would miss the final two games of their road trip after he suffered a minor knee sprain against Los Angeles on Friday. The offense didn’t miss a beat on Sunday, the first of back-to-back road games, but their defense was nowhere to be found in a 140-131 loss to Phoenix.

Khris Middleton picked up the offensive slack with the NBA’s third-leading scorer sidelined, as he posted a 39-point effort, but Milwaukee was gashed for 47 points in the first quarter alone en route to a forgettable effort from the league’s second-ranked defense.

Milwaukee has now lost three of its last four games, while going just 1-4 ATS in its past five contests. The defense should be able to rebound somewhat against Denver’s 20th-ranked offense, but without Antetokounmpo the Bucks will have to dig deep to beat a Nuggets team that is 15-4 SU against them over their last 19 meetings.

Denver News & Notes

The Nuggets are still in first place in the Northwest Division, but there’s some cause for concern as they have lost five of their last nine games, going 2-7 ATS over that stretch, and they have lost to some of the league’s worst teams.

Over its last three games, Denver has lost to Cleveland and Golden State, who have a combined 34 wins this season, while needing a last-second jumper from Jamal Murray to win against Charlotte, a team that is almost 20 games under .500.

The Nuggets are at their best when they play at a tempo that suits the league’s eighth-ranked defense, as they have one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the NBA. This rough stretch has come during a period when the Nuggets have seen the total go OVER in 10 of their last 15 games, and recent history has shown that high-scoring games are expected between Denver and Milwaukee — the total has gone OVER in four of their last five matchups.

Betting Pick: UNDER 220

The Bucks are playing the second night of a back-to-back, without Giannis Antetokounmpo, against a Nuggets team that is looking to re-establish its identity. That identity is defense, and I think the Nuggets find it Monday in what will be a low-scoring affair.