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Bucks Have Been Covering Machines on the Road

Eric Bledsoe #6 of the Milwaukee Bucks is called for the offensive foul against Dwayne Bacon #7 of the Charlotte Hornets at Fiserv Forum on March 09, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The Milwaukee Bucks are well on their way to clinching the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but a potential first-round matchup awaits tonight when they travel to Miami to renew acquaintances with the No. 8-seeded Heat. Sportsbooks opened the Bucks as 5-point road favorites with a total of 219.5.

Bucks vs Heat Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Milwaukee snapped a three-game slide by erupting for 45 points in the third quarter in a 130-113 triumph over New Orleans on Tuesday. The Bucks, who sit three games ahead of the second-place Toronto Raptors, are 24-12 SU and 21-13-2 ATS on the road in 2018-19.
  • Miami has won five of its last six games to sit comfortably in the No. 8 slot, with the Heat’s latest triumph coming in the form of a decisive 108-74 victory over the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday. The Heat outscored the Pistons 63-26 in the first and third quarters combined, coming out of the locker room with a 21-0 run after halftime in the win.
  • In the last meeting between the teams in Wisconsin on January 15, Milwaukee crushed Miami 124-86. It was a rare win for Milwaukee, which was 0-6 SU and ATS in the previous six clashes between the squads prior to that game. Overall, the Bucks are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven meetings with the Heat.
  • Backing the Bucks as road favorites has been a sharp play. In Milwaukee’s past 12 when tabbed as road chalk, it’s 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. Bovada opened the Bucks moneyline at a price of -210.
  • When it comes to the total, bettors need to pay attention to these teams’ penchant for participating in low-scoring affairs in the Sunshine State. The UNDER is 7-2 in the previous nine matchups between the Bucks and Heat in Florida.

My best bet for Bucks-Heat

Bucks -5

The Bucks are the top bet in the NBA for a reason – they’re the real deal. Milwaukee, which sits at an NBA-best 40-25-3 ATS on the season, has been crushing relatively small spreads like this one all year long and I’m not expecting them to slow down now. The Heat have had the Bucks’ number at home over the years, but this is a much different Bucks team. I expect Milwaukee to win this one relatively easily tonight.