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NBA Free Pick: Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs February 27

The Spurs return home after a long eight-game road trip to host a Pistons team that has won three in a row and seven of eight. San Antonio lost seven of its eight games on the road and is barely hanging on to the eighth spot in the West. Despite their losing streak, the Spurs are listed as 4.5-point favorites over the Pistons, with a total listed at 220.5. The Linebacker projects the Spurs will win 116.3 - 111.5, giving us a much stronger play on the OVER than the spread. Our model suggests a wager of $83 on the OVER 220.5 for a $100 average bettor.

The Linebacker’s NBA model has gone 413-362 (53.3%) ATS and 437-387 (53.0%) on OVER/UNDERs this season, producing $2,720 in profit for $100 average bettors. Head to www.thelinebacker.com/pricing to start your free trial today and get every NBA pick.

Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs (SA -4.5, O/U 220)

Why will the total go Over?

  • Both Detroit and San Antonio have allowed opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field this season, tied for sixth-worst in the NBA.
  • The Pistons shoot threes on 39.1 percent of their possessions and on average get 33.1 percent of their points from three-pointers, ranking seventh in both categories in the NBA. The Spurs are terrible at defending the three, allowing opponents to make 11.7 per game (eighth-most) and shoot 36.4 percent from three (fifth-highest).
  • Over the last month (13 games), the Spurs have allowed opponents to score 119.8 points per game, which is fifth-worst over that time frame and over eight points higher than their season average.
  • In that same stretch, San Antonio has allowed opponents to shoot a league-high 49.9 percent from the field and a second-highest 38.2 percent from three.
  • Detroit’s defense excels against the three-pointer, forcing opponents to shoot a league-worst 33.5 percent from three. Subsequently, they allow opponents to score the second-highest percentage of points from two-point shots. San Antonio shoots the lowest percentage of threes in the NBA (28.3 percent), shooting a league-high 71.7 percent of their shots from two-point range and scoring a fifth-highest 57.2 percent of their points from two-pointers.

How to bet the spread in Pistons @ Spurs:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 116.3 - 111.5 in favor of the Spurs. With a projected margin of 4.8 points and a spread of 4.5, we have no suggestion on betting the spread in this game.