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NBA Free Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks April 3

NBA Free Pick Linebacker Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (DAL -2.5, O/U 224)

The Linebacker’s NBA free pick tonight comes from Dallas, where Luka Doncic and the Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves come into town having lost eight of their last 10 games overall, and eight of nine on the road. Meanwhile, the Mavs look for their third consecutive victory for the first time since December. Dallas is currently a 2.5-point favorite, but our model projects them to win by nearly seven points, giving us a solid play on the Mavericks. Our NBA model suggests a wager of $99 on DAL -2.5 for a $100 average bettor.

The Linebacker’s NBA model has gone 530-465 (53.3%) ATS and 538-508 (51.4%) on OVER/UNDERs this season, producing $4,155 in profit for $100 average bettors. Head to www.thelinebacker.com/pricing to start your free trial today and get every NBA pick!

Why will Dallas cover the spread?

  • The Timberwolves have stopped playing defense over their last 10 games, allowing opponents to average 120.1 points per game on 48.4 percent shooting from the field. The three-pointer has especially hurt them, as they’ve allowed opponents to make 15.4 threes per game and shoot 43.4 percent from behind the arc, both worst in the NBA over that span.
  • The Mavericks should be able to exploit a weak perimeter defense, as they average 36 three-point attempts per game at home. That ranks fourth in the NBA, while their 12.4 made threes per game ranks eighth.
  • Minnesota has been ravaged by injuries late in the season, losing Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague, Robert Covington and Taj Gibson. All four of those players are top six in minutes and points per game for the T-Wolves, leaving a lot of holes to be filled with subpar talent.
  • Minnesota’s 9.4-point average margin of loss over its last 10 games ranks sixth-worst in the NBA. The Timberwolves are ahead of only the Knicks, Bulls, Pelicans, Suns and Cavaliers over that span.

How to bet the total in Timberwolves @ Mavericks:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 115.7 - 109.1 in favor of the Mavericks. With 224.8 projected points and a total of 224, our model has no suggestion on betting the spread in this matchup.

 

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