Pacers Celtics Game 1 Preview & Odds

NBA Playoffs 2024 Expert Picks & Preview: Pacers vs. Celtics Game 1

Our NBA experts Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello are here throughout the playoffs offering up their spread, moneyline, OVER/UNDER, and player prop picks for all of the action. 

One of the surprise teams of these NBA playoffs, the Indiana Pacers take on the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Final series. While they've exceeded expectations thus far, the Pacers face a daunting task against the top-seeded Celtics. Check out all the odds and our best bets below.

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NBA Expert Picks Results: Conference Finals

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Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics Game 1 Preview & Picks

Matchup Page: Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics, 8 p.m. ET

Same-Game Parlay: Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics Game 1

TeamSpreadMoneyTotal
Indiana Pacers+9.5 (-105)+350O 221 (-113)
Boston Celtics-9.5 (-110)-450U 221 (+100)

 

Nick Holz's Pick: Indiana Pacers ATS +9.5 (-105)

I've been fooled by the Celtics one too many times this postseason. While they're an absolute colossus of a basketball team - and NBA Championship favorites for a reason - a double-digit first game spread, against a red hot Indiana Pacers team is too much.

Indiana just knocked down an insane 67% of shots and over 50% from three to take down the hobbled New York Knicks. While I don't expect them to shoot nearly as well at the Garden, the Pacers did knock down nearly 40% of threes against the Celtics this season. On top of that, while Rick Carlisle's squad is just 1-10 SU in their last 11 trips to Beantown, the Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games versus the Celtics.

Additionally, trade deadline acquisition Pascal Siakam could prove to be the great equalizer for the Pacers here. Even with a bit of negative shooting regression, I like the Pacers to cover the spread in Game 1.

Christopher Walder's Pick: OVER 221 Total Points (-113)

The turnaround for the Pacers is incredibly tight after having just taken Game 7 on the road against the Knicks on Sunday, while Boston enters the opener with a significant rest advantage having last played on May 15. That could impact the final score in a negative way, but what we're hoping for is it having the polar opposite effect with Indiana being more game-ready going directly into another series so quickly.

Dating back to April 3, the Pacers have reached the OVER in eight of their last 10 games when oddsmakers have the total prop set at 221 points or greater. This doesn't even include Games 6 and 7 versus the Knicks in the Eastern Conference semifinals which both hit OVER, although Game 6 wouldn't have toppled an OVER on 221.5 points, barely missing out at 219.

The Celtics, meanwhile, only went UNDER once in the second round against the Cleveland Cavaliers, although the preset total never went above 212 points. Regardless, Boston and Indiana did score a combined 234 points at least in four of their five meetings during the regular season, averaging a combined 245.8 points overall. Sign me up for an OVER here.

David Caraviello's Pick: Indiana Pacers ATS +9.5 (-105)

Boston won three of the five regular-season meetings with the Pacers, the last two of which were single-digit results. The Celtics also failed to cover in three of their final four games against Cleveland in the Eastern Conference semifinals, and have been particularly susceptible against the spread at home.

While the Celtics should win this series, the Pacers and their high-tempo perimeter-oriented play are more than capable of making a game of it, especially with Boston big man Kristaps Porzingis likely still limited with a leg injury.

Nick Holz's Pick: Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 Points (-111)

Siakam has averaged over 25 points and 7 rebounds on 53% shooting across his past 10 games against Boston. I love the matchup for Siakam in this series.

When Jayson Tatum (29.5 point prop) sits, or the Celtics try to hide him so he can conserve energy, who guards Pascal? An aging Al Horford? Sam Hauser, maybe Luke Kornet? I'll give the advantage to Siakam in all of those matchups, and love him to surpass his 20.5 point prop with ease on Tuesday night. Look for Siakam to be ultra aggressive, especially when pitted against Tatum as the Pacers aim to wear down the Celts stars on the defensive end.

Chris' Pick: Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 32.5 PTS + REB + AST (-118)

Game 1s this postseason haven't been kind to Tyrese Haliburton, as the All-Star point guard's lone two outings with single-digit scoring came in the opener against the Milwaukee Bucks (nine points) and then again versus New York (six points).

As a combined points, rebounds, and assists prop, Haliburton fell well short of the 32.5 line set for Tuesday at 24 and 16, respectively, while also doing so in his last three matchups against Boston during the 2023-24 campaign. 

Boston is stacked defensively on the perimeter and should be zoned in on Haliburton to try and make him as much of a non-factor as possible. As history suggests, it does take time for the 24-year-old floor general to get acclimated to a fresh opponent and series, so while his numbers should improve over time for the Pacers' sake, it won't necessarily come together this early.

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