Each getting a win in their season openers, the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets will take the court in the high altitude of Colorado. The Nuggets polished off the Clippers to win 107-98 while the Suns took care of business in their home opener by smoking the Mavericks 121-100. The Nuggets opened as 10-point favorites and have done fairly well as a double-digit fave at home lately as they’re 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last eight games in this spot.
The total for this one opened at 223 and has since moved to 224.
- The Suns are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in last 9 games vs Nuggets.
- The Nuggets are 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home as double-digit favorites.
- The OVER has hit in 6 of the last 7 games in this matchup. (Average combined score: 232.7)
Nuggets Have Owned The Matchup vs the Suns
A team that has been projected to break through and reach the postseason, Denver is a very intriguing team in the NBA because they have players at each position that are extremely skilled offensively. The Nuggets dropped 108 points on the Clippers in the season opener but it was their defense that won them the game. The Nugs were down by eight points in the fourth quarter before clamping down and outscoring LA 23-6 to close it out. For a team that ranked 22nd in points allowed per game last season (108.5), it’s a very encouraging sign for Mike Malone’s squad.
Returning home to the Pepsi Center, the Nuggets will face a stiff test vs the young guns of Phoenix but Denver will likely just try to outscore the Suns. The Nuggets are 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as double-digit favorites (average win margin of 18.1 points) and in the last five games at home when hosting the Suns, Denver has averaged 119.4 points per game. I know the Suns’ defense is much improved with their offseason additions but it could be a tall order to outscore the Nuggets and keep pace due to the high altitude and shooting.
Will Suns’ Strong Shooting Continue?
There have been some dark days for the Phoenix Suns since Steve Nash was traded to the Lakers back in 2012. The Suns have only won back-to-back games five times in the last calendar year and haven’t won three games in a row since March 2017. This year may be different for their winning chances because a dominant big man can still move the needle in the NBA.
Deandre Ayton won the “Deandre” battle in his first taste of regular season action vs the Mavericks as he outplayed DeAndre Jordan and put up 18 points and 10 rebounds in his debut. What was most impressive in the victory vs the Mavs was the hot shooting of Phoenix as it went 19-34 from deep (55.9 percent) with guard Devin Booker leading the way with six treys. This one-two punch of Booker and Ayton will need to carry the load offensively tonight in the Rocky Mountains as the Suns are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine games in this matchup.
I expect the Suns to keep it close with both Booker and Ayton doing their part in the scoring department but to project Trevor Ariza, Josh Jackson and TJ Warren to combine to shoot for 11 for 19 from three-point range again as they did against the Mavericks may be a bit far-fetched. Ariza is the only one out of three to have a career three-point field goal percentage above 30 percent.
OVER ALERT!
The total opened at 223 (now 224) and I think this total may be a bit too low. The OVER has hit in six of the last seven games in this matchup with an average combined score of 232.7 points per game. The Suns last season gave up the most points per game in the NBA and although they’re improving defensively, they may find it difficult to contain the Nuggets at home.
My Pick is…
To take the OVER. The Nuggets have put up a ton of points against the Suns when they play at home and it’s not like Denver has anyone on the roster that will be making an all-defensive team anytime soon. Prepare for a shootout!
