The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic will take the hardwood on Tuesday, April 15 in a No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup for this year's play-in tournament, and with such high stakes as both teams look to avoid needing another game to qualify for the playoffs, we could be in store for some noteworthy box scores to accentuate the player props market.
Here are three expert player prop picks for your consideration more than 24 hours prior to the opening tip, including a scoring prop taking the UNDER for Hawks point guard Trae Young (-125) at the Kia Center.
Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic, 7:30 p.m. ET
Trae Young UNDER 27.5 Points vs. Magic (-125 at Sportsbook)
Participating in the play-in tournament is nothing new to Young, as this will mark both he and the Hawks' fourth-straight trip dating back to 2022. With four games already under the franchise's belt in this format, Atlanta is currently tied with the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans for the most total victories at 3-1, but that's not what we're focused in on here.
Across those four games, Young only exceeded 27.5 points on one occasion when he dropped 30 points on the Cleveland Cavaliers for the eighth seed in 2022. Now those were different times, different opponents, and different rosters at the time, but it's still telling enough to take a second and third look at an UNDER play here, while also taking into account the No. 2-ranked defense of the Magic.
Young did average 28.3 points in three appearances versus Orlando, but he only converted 26.7-percent of his 3-point attempts (down from season average of 34 percent) while averaging just under six turnovers (5.7) per contest. He did go OVER 27.5 points once on the road, but it was barely an OVER with 28 points on April 8. The four-time All-Star could still make an impact offensively, especially when paired with his assists, but Orlando is going to attempt to lock him down defensively and force him into taking shots out of his comfort zone with size and strength on the perimeter. Even with how important a win would be, along with Young's potency to get hot, expecting 28 or more points is asking just a bit too much here.
Wendell Carter Jr. OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Hawks (-120 at Sportsbook)
The Magic's hopes of moving forward rest squarely on the shoulders of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, but that doesn't mean the rest of the team is devoid of responsibility. Atlanta's depth is one of its strong suits, but that's not really the case for Orlando, which is why starting center Wendell Carter Jr. needs to make his presence felt around the basket to improve his side's chances.
Going OVER 20.5 combined points and rebounds didn't come naturally for the 6-foot-10 big man over this final stretch, as he only exceeded that number once in his last 10 games and three times in his last 15. The optimism for an OVER on Tuesday stems from the fact that Carter Jr. has gone OVER in four of his last six meetings with the Hawks dating back to last season, and that he finished with at least 24 points and boards on both Feb. 20 and April 8.
Atlanta ranked 10th and seventh, respectively, in opposing center's points and rebounds per game, so both Onyeka Okongwu and Mouhamed Gueye won't make life easy for Carter Jr. on Tuesday. At least we've seen enough OVERs here to justify a wager, and Carter Jr. has the most reasonable upside to be the No. 3 option next to Banchero and Wagner.
Zaccharie Risacher UNDER 12.5 Points vs. Magic (-130 at Sportsbook)
The No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 class really did make the Rookie of the Year race interesting during the second half of the season, converting just under half of his shots and 40.7 percent from 3-point range to the tune of 14.7 points over his last 27 appearances for Atlanta. Suffice it to say, he's going into this game with the Magic with some momentum. So why are we choosing to go UNDER with his scoring prop then?
For starters, Risacher went UNDER 12.5 points all four times against Orlando this season, contributing nine per game points while watching his efficiency plummet to just 37.5 percent. Despite his surge in offense, the 20-year-old Frenchman also went UNDER in six of his last eight games, as well. Two of those UNDERS came versus the Magic, although we'll cut him some slack for his six-point showing on April 13 since he was pulled after 10 minutes to preserve him for tonight.
Should he struggle, head coach Quin Snyder may go to his second unit and extend the minutes of someone like Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, or Terance Mann since he does have a slew of options at his disposal.
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