The NBA playoff schedule for Thursday night has three Game 3s for basketball fans and bettors alike, featuring the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies, and finally the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers.
Here are six expert player props for your consideration, including a scoring prop for Jalen Brunson wagering the OVER (-108) at Little Caesars Arena on April 24.
Jalen Brunson OVER 28.5 Points vs. Pistons (-108 at Sportsbook)
Game Preview: New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. ET
Knicks fans are still waiting for someone other than Brunson to step up offensively in this best-of-seven with Detroit, as the All-Star point guard is literally doubling up everyone else on the roster with 35.5 points per game thus far while Karl-Anthony Towns and O.G. Anunoby are each contributing 16.5 points. It's similar production to what New York was putting forth during last year's postseason, but it's not sustainable. It's also unfair to Brunson after the roster underwent such a dramatic transformation with the acquisitions of Towns and Mikal Bridges.
He hasn't scored less than 34 points through the first two games at Madison Square Garden, which means he's exceeded the 28.5-point prop established for Thursday in seven of the last nine games he's squared off with the Pistons. With each team having now played twice, Brunson finds himself averaging the most shot attempts amongst all players at 27, converting at a 44.4-percent clip.
High output, especially to that degree, is always going to attract bettors. Brunson hit an OVER on 28.5 points in eight out of 13 playoff games in 2023-24, and that hit rate will likely be higher this time around at this current pace.
Tobias Harris OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Knicks (-120 at Sportsbook)
Game Preview: New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. ET
A compelling argument can be made that Tobias Harris has been Detroit's best player through two games. Yes, even more so than Cade Cunningham. Harris is averaging a near double-double of 20 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 58.3 percent from the field and 55.6 percent from 3-point range, which are leaps and bounds better than his season averages.
His scoring alone would get him to where he needs to be for an OVER on this combination prop, and considering the fact that Harris went for 31 (25 points and six rebounds) in Game 1 and followed that up with 28 (15 points and 13 rebounds) in Game 2, it's kind of surprising to see his line at just 20.5 for Game 3 in his own backyard.
Take that and run. The 32-year-old veteran has been a breath of fresh air for the Pistons and a welcome surprise. It's difficult to imagine Harris' efficiency holding up, but he's played more than 40 minutes in each game so far while averaging double-digit shot attempts. That's a combination for success in his props market even if his percentages see a bit of a dip.
Chet Holmgren To Record A Double-Double vs. Grizzlies (+135 at Sportsbook)
Game Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 p.m. ET
Two double-doubles for Thunder big man Chet Holmgren are nice, but three would be even sweeter at plus money. The lanky 7-foot-1 giant played just 21 minutes in Game 1 but still ended up with 19 points and 10 rebounds, and then came back 48 hours later to register 20 points and 11 rebounds in 33 minutes.
Holmgren only played 32 times during the regular season as a result of a serious hip injury, but did manage to accumulate 11 double-doubles over that span. He's one of just 10 players to have suited up twice during these playoffs to be averaging 10 or more rebounds, which has helped Oklahoma City be the only team grabbing better than 50 boards at 54.5.
Jaren Jackson Jr. isn't much of a presence on the glass, and surprisingly, Memphis rookie center Zach Edey hasn't finished with better than nine rebounds through two games. Getting a Holmgren double-double at +135 considering he just strung together two in a row is a no-brainer sprinkle, at the very least.
Desmond Bane OVER 26.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Thunder (-102 at Sportsbook)
Game Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 p.m. ET
We'll cut Desmond Bane a bit of slack for his miserable nine-point, two-rebound box score against the Thunder in Game 1, as no one on the Grizzlies looked particularly good in what turned out to be a monster 51-point blowout loss at the Paycom Center. His 19 points and 12 boards in Game 2 were more in line with what we're expecting from him numbers-wise versus the best team in the Association, although it didn't do much to change the trajectory of the series.
Nevertheless, this bet isn't made with the mindset that Memphis is going to all of a sudden turn things around. Bane's going to see a ton of action regardless of what the scoreboard says, and what we like most about his combination points and rebounds prop being at 26.5 is that he's gone OVER in six of his last eight games.
Playing at the FedExForum should help with the home fans attempting to rally the Grizzlies out of this hole. Bane is the third-leading scorer for Memphis and surprisingly the second-leading rebounder, so whether there's two games left to go or more, he'll continue to be a threat in this market for the time being.
Christian Braun UNDER 16.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Clippers (-112 at Sportsbook)
Game Preview: Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers, 10 p.m. ET
Someone was likely going to take a bit of a backseat for Denver with Russell Westbrook likely receiving extra run off the bench for his offensive intangibles, which has proven to be true. Coming off a campaign in which he propelled himself into Most Improved Player consideration, it's a tad disheartening to see that Christian Braun is the one whose taken a step back, even though he's still playing a healthy 39.7 minutes per game.
He currently sits on the Nuggets in scoring at eight points per game and sixth in rebounds at 4.5. As it pertains to his combination prop of 16.5 for Game 3, Braun has gone UNDER each time with no more than 14 (11 points and three rebounds in Game 1).
Dating back to Nov. 24, 2023, the 24-year-old wing has only gone OVER this number in three out of a possible 10 meetings with the Clippers. He's unfortunately the odd man out behind Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Westbrook, which makes leaning towards an UNDER on most of Braun's numbers the smarter play.
Kawhi Leonard OVER 1.5 Steals vs. Nuggets (-130 at Sportsbook)
Game Preview: Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers, 10 p.m. ET
Here comes another rare defensive prop coming off of last night. Perhaps this will be a recurring trend with our prop bets, but last night's Game 2 between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets set the bar for what we could achieve. We took Warriors forward Draymond Green to have two or more steals at +126 at the Toyota Center, and he had that in the first half alone, which is why we're going to try and mimic that success here with Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard.
The two-time Finals Most Valuable Player is tied for fifth amongst all players this postseason at 2.5 steals per game after finishing with three in Game 1 and then two in Game 2. Adding in the final stretch of the regular season, Leonard has now notched two or more steals in three-straight games and seven of his last 10.
The Nuggets rank third from the bottom in turnovers at 15.5, and Leonard has looked every bit of the player on both ends of the floor who guided the Toronto Raptors to the Larry O'Brien trophy in 2019. This is a steal, literally and figuratively.
