A 3-1 record for Monday's NBA player props started the week off on the right foot, and the one failed bet (an OVER in points for Isaiah Hartenstein) just barely missed out. If that's indicative of how things will unfold in the coming days, then that's a good sign.
Here are four expert player prop picks for tonight's nine-game slate, including a 3-pointers made prop for Jalen Brunson at plus money (+104) when the red-hot Golden State Warriors visit Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, March 4, 2025.
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 Made 3-Pointers vs. Warriors (+104)
Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Brunson is currently in the midst of one of his better stretches of 2024-25, which just so happens to coincide with a 5-2 record for his Knicks. He's producing 27.7 points and 6.7 assists while converting 2.7 triples over his last seven appearances, and it's that 3-pointers number we'll be eying here in what could turn out to be a shootout at the MSG corral against Golden State.
The New York Knicks All-Star has drilled at least two shots from behind the arc in each of those outings, but will need three or more to each an OVER here, which he made happen in four of those games. This is the first time Brunson will be facing the Warriors this season, yet he did manage to convert at least three in the two appearances against them in 2023-24 at a 38.3-percent clip.
Oddsmakers have Brunson's scoring prop as the highest of any player at 27.5, so it's going to take a fair share of 3-pointers to come close to that number anyway.
Kelly Olynyk OVER 9.5 Points vs. Lakers (-110)
Preview: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET
Fresh surroundings and an expanded role he was never going to receive in his home country as part of the Toronto Raptors has reinvigorated Kelly Olynyk's numbers, although the bar was incredibly low. He averaged 7.1 points and 3.7 rebounds on 50 percent shooting across 24 appearances north of the border, but in five games with the New Orleans Pelicans, Olynyk's production has risen to 12.2 points and 9.2 rebounds on 51.2 percent shooting all as a starter.
The near 7-footer has scored 10 or more points in three of those five appearances, and is coming off his strongest performance against the Utah Jazz on Sunday with a near double-double of 26 points and nine rebounds while missing just four of his 14 shot attempts in 26 minutes.
Opposing teams will continuously attempt to exploit the Los Angeles Lakers' lack of an interior presence due to their minimal frontcourt size, even though they do possess the No. 1-ranked defense allowing just 107.4 points per 100 possessions since Feb. 1. Both Luka Doncic and LeBron James are listed as questionable, and a 9.5-point prop is a reasonable number to hit for Olynyk considering he's usually viewed as one of the weaker threats in any lineup to go off.
Jakob Poeltl OVER 18.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Magic (-102)
Preview: Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. ET
This marks the second time in three days that the Raptors will be taking the hardwood at the Kia Center to face a struggling Orlando Magic that's dropped three games in a row and four of their last five. This includes a 104-102 loss to the visitors on Sunday, with Orlando trailing by as many as 19 points with just over eight minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.
Raptors center Jakob Poeltl recorded his 20th double-double of the campaign with 16 points and 11 rebounds in just 26 minutes, and it was the second time in five games against Orlando that he's achieved one. Now he doesn't necessarily need a third to go OVER a combination prop of 18.5 points and rebounds, as Poeltl has accomplished that four out of the five times in this matchup and scored 25 or more points twice in his second stint with the franchise.
Teammate Gradey Dick has been ruled out with a knee injury he suffered in the previous game, so that's a chunk of offense which needs to be accounted for. It undoubtedly helps knowing that we've just seen Poeltl go OVER 48 hours ago against the same team, so let's hope it happens again.
Quentin Grimes UNDER 16.5 Points vs. Timberwolves (-122)
Preview: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
A 44-point outburst against versus the Warriors on March 1 had many believing Quentin Grimes of the Philadelphia 76ers could be the next obscure player to reach 50 in a game, joining the likes of Terrence Ross, Malachi Flynn, Corey Brewer, and Tony Delk. While it's not meant to suggest that such a line was merely an anomaly Grimes has zero chance of replicating, for now, it's easier to be pessimistic.
Oddsmakers have his points prop established at 16.5 points on Tuesday against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that allows the 25th-fewest points to opposing shooting guards on the season. Grimes' follow-up to his Warriors box score was 14 points on 6-of-15 shooting in 38 minutes during a blowout loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, which is still quite respectable, but would ultimately be yet another UNDER here. Paul George and Kelly Oubre Jr. were also out for that game, but are expected to return against Minnesota.
Grimes has only gone OVER 16.5 two out of a possible 10 times with Philadelphia since coming over from the Dallas Mavericks, and perhaps a potential absence from Tyrese Maxey due to an injured back could propel him to an OVER here. We just need to see more before hitching our wagon to the 24-year-old.
