NBA Player Props Today: Bet Conservatively With Doncic Props vs Timberwolves

There's five games across the NBA schedule for Thursday night, and on the back of a fairly successful week wagering on player props, less can still mean more as long as we continue connecting on some of these numbers.

Here are four expert player prop picks to gloss over on February 27, including a combination prop for Luka Doncic in his latest appearance in Los Angeles Lakers colors as the Minnesota Timberwolves visit Crypto.com Arena. 

Luka Doncic UNDER 35.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Timberwolves (-112)

Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET

It's easy to get carried away with Doncic's productivity in his new surroundings, consistently projecting ungodly numbers because that's what we've grown accustomed to seeing from the five-time All-Star during his tenure with the Dallas Mavericks. We're still in the infancy of this latest stage of his career, though, so there has to be some tempered expectations for the time being as Doncic continues to adjust while learning the ways of a fresh system and the tendencies and habits of his new teammates.

Through his first five games as a Laker, Doncic has scored 20 or more points in a game only once while having yet to convert more than 50 percent of his shot attempts. He's averaging a respectable nine rebounds per game, mind you, but combining the two statistics together, Doncic has gone UNDER Thursday's prop of 35.5 points and rebounds four out of the five times. 

This is the third time he'll be seeing Minnesota this season, with his Christmas Day matchup resulting in the calf injury which kept him sidelined until just before the All-Star break. When Doncic saw the Timberwolves back in October, however, he registered 24 points and eight boards while missing 17 shots which would have also gone UNDER this number, so take that for what it's worth. 

Jamal Murray OVER 2.5 Made 3-Pointers vs. Bucks (+102)

Preview: Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET

Riding a hot hand comes with its share of worries, because you never quite know when a shooting streak is going to come to an end. In the case of Jamal Murray, there's still enough meat on the bone with how well he's been converting triples as of late to think he'll be on fire for at least one more game. 

The Denver Nuggets guard has knocked down four or more 3-pointers in five of his last six appearances, making a mouth-watering 60.8 percent of those attempts. Murray even drilled six or more threes in four of those outings, as well, and on the two occasions in which Denver played on the road during that stretch, he went a combined 10-of-13 from deep.  

The Milwaukee Bucks are only allowing opposing teams to shoot 33.4 percent from 3-point range in February, which is seventh-best in the league and likely explains why Murray's prop is set at plus money. The risk is worth the reward, though, especially with the run he's been on. 

Bol Bol OVER 13.5 Points vs. Pelicans (-114) 

Preview: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns, 9 p.m. ET

Pretty much all of the value here comes with the assumption that Bol Bol will continue being a part of the Phoenix Suns' starting lineup, as he was recently slotted back in for what ended up being the highest-scoring game of the 2024-25 season on Tuesday in a 151-148 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. 

Bol finished with 23 points and eight rebounds on 8-of-11 shooting in 32 minutes of action, although he had a team-worst plus-minus of -12 when he was on the floor. Still, potential defensive liabilities aside, in what was his third start of the season, the 7-foot-3 giant went OVER 13.5 points for a third time. 

Now Bol has reached an OVER one other time as a reserve this month when exceeding 30 minutes of playing time, so perhaps that's the magic formula here. As long as the minutes are there, Bol is a threat to score, and against the third-worst defense of the New Orleans Pelicans, the upside is incredibly strong.

Moses Moody OVER 15.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Magic (-114)

Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. ET

Who knows what Moses Moody's role will be once teammate Jonathan Kuminga returns from an ankle injury to the Golden State Warriors, but for now, bettors need to take advantage of a noteworthy stretch for this combination prop. 

In the seven games Jimmy Butler has been a part of the team since coming over from the Miami Heat, Moody has produced averages of 12.9 points and three boards in just under 28 minutes. For a prop of 15.5 points and rebounds, the 22-year-old wing has reached an OVER in five of his last six games. 

Moody has finished with fewer than 13 points just once during that aforementioned stretch, which takes bettors most of the way to an OVER. 

NBA Best Player Prop Trends Today

Luka Doncic UNDER 7.5 Assists vs. Timberwolves (-136)

Luka Doncic has been a key playmaker for the Mavericks this season, averaging 7.7 assists per game. That number has dipped a bit lately, with Doncic putting up just 7.0 assists per game over his last five.

Minnesota's defense is no joke when it comes to limiting ball movement. The Timberwolves give up only 24.4 assists per game—the fifth-fewest in the NBA. They're also tough on point guards, allowing just 8.4 assists per game to the position, which ranks eighth in the league.

With Doncic's recent numbers and the Wolves' stingy defense, the UNDER 7.5 assists looks like a smart play tonight.

- Ethan Diamandas