NBA Player Props Today: Holmgren Upside Huge vs Depleted Grizzlies Defense

A 2-2 split in player prop picks from Tuesday's NBA slate didn't hurt our units too much, but ideally what any bettor should want is to hit more wagers than they get wrong. A split often results in negative units barring plus-money bets connecting, and we're going to be leaning towards some with high upside across Wednesday's eight-game schedule. 

Here are four expert player prop picks for you to consider, including a scoring prop for Chet Holmgren (+102) as the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the FedExForum to battle the Memphis Grizzlies on March 5, 2025.

Chet Holmgren OVER 16.5 Points vs. Grizzlies (+102)

Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 p.m. ET

The obvious takeaway here is that All-Star big man Jaren Jackson Jr. has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 ankle sprain which will keep him sidelined on a week-to-week basis. That's a kick to the gut for a Grizzlies defense which has been abysmal since the All-Star break, ranking 29th across the Association by allowing 121.1 points per 100 possessions. Ja Morant is also listed as questionable after sitting the last two games with a shoulder injury, as well, and Santi Aldama could also be absent once again with a bad calf.

It's not as though the Thunder wouldn't have been favored against a healthier Memphis roster, having won four-straight games with just two defeats since Feb. 1. The Jackson Jr. injury specifically is encouraging for Holmgren's scoring prop, though, as the opposing frontcourt now lacks any size or stability outside of the slow-moving 7-foot-4 rookie Zach Edey, who has yet to play 30 or more minutes in a game.

Holmgren has only scored 17 or more points in three of his eight appearances since returning from a serious hip injury on Feb. 7, but for what it's worth, did reach an OVER on 16.5 in two of his three meetings versus the Grizzlies a season ago. Jackson Jr. being out paired with Memphis being incapable of stopping a soul over its last seven games strengthens Holmgen's chances here. 

Carlton Carrington OVER 16.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Jazz (-125)

Preview: Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET

When two of the three worst defenses in all of basketball compete against each other, it can be a gold mine for bettors as there's going to be an obvious lack of desire for either roster to lock down anyone. Rookie point guard Carlton Carrington of the Washington Wizards is one of the more intriguing options as the visiting Utah Jazz rank 23rd in points allowed to opposing point guards and 21st in rebounds.

Now Washington is actually worse in both categories, sitting 25th and 28th respectively, but Utah does have the slightly-worse defense as an entire unit, and even if it's only by a hair, there's more faith in Bub to outperform this combination prop than there is for anyone in the Jazz's backcourt with the fluctuating minutes being handed out by head coach Will Hardy.

Carrington is only averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 rebounds over his last six appearances with just a pair of OVERs at 16.5 sprinkled throughout. However, two of his UNDERs were at exactly 16 points and rebounds, and he has totalled over 31 minutes of playing time in his last two games. Oddsmakers at least have hope listing this at -125, and it's not as though Utah is in much of a position to offer up resistance. 

Max Strus To Make 3+ 3-Pointers vs. Heat (+200)

Preview: Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET

Over the last 10 games, the Miami Heat have ranked 22nd in both 3-pointers made (14.3) and attempted (38.3) by opposing teams, and that bodes well for Cleveland Cavaliers sniper Max Strus with the run he's been on as of late shooting the rock from deep. 

Strus has knocked down three or more triples in four of his last five games for Cleveland, topping out at five in just 20 minutes during a 40-point blowout of the Orlando Magic on Feb. 25. Now his actual 3-pointers prop is set at -166 for an OVER at 1.5, but when factoring in his hot hand, it makes more sense to increase the output and roll the dice for greater reward, which doesn't even seem that farfetched. 

Now Struss has converted exactly two 3-pointers in each of the Cavaliers' last three meetings with the Heat, but that's not enough to deter this bet. He's shooting 40.5 percent from the perimeter in 15 games at Rocket Arena, so making three on Wednesday isn't unthinkable with such incredible value.

Jaden McDaniels OVER 14.5 Points vs. Hornets (+100)

Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET

Jaden McDaniels is the backbone of a Minnesota Timberwolves perimeter defense which has been getting some of its mojo back on that end of the hardwood as of late, and his consistently high minutes tally is reflective of his significance to what the team is trying to accomplish.

We more often than not look at McDaniels for his defensive intangibles and not his offensive contributions, but many should reevaluate that stance as he's averaged 18 points while shooting a smidge below 50 percent from the field in 15 games over the last month or so. 

The respective returns of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo to the Timberwolves' rotation could have a lasting impact on those numbers, yet McDaniels has scored at least 13 points in each of the two games since they've come back while playing 32 or more minutes each time. Now finishing with exactly 13 would equate to an UNDER here, but playing a Charlotte Hornets team allowing 117.5 points per 100 possessions over their last eight games (24th) helps his cause.

NBA Best Player Prop Trends Today

AL Horford UNDER 0.5 Steals vs Portland (+155 at bet365)

We're in the weeds for this bet, but I believe. In a vacuum, one steal sounds like easy pickings, and there's no doubt luck is heavily involved. Horford could accidentally get his hand on a pass and this bet is pooched. That said, ball (trends) don't lie. 

Horford has been shockingly uninvolved in the steals market. Okay, he collected three steals last time out vs Denver, but you've got to squint hard to catch the OVERs. Zoom out and you'll see dollar signs on this prop. Horford has gone UNDER 0.5 steals in 16 of his last 19 games. That includes a stretch from Jan. 7 to Feb. 23 where he had just one steal in 16 games. 

TLDR: The odds on this prop outweigh the risk, in a good way. You can take much larger risks for +155 odds. Just set it and forget it. Check the Celtics box score after the game.

- Ethan Diamandas